Eliezer, I think the point you’ve made here generalizes to several things in the standard fallacy lists, usually which take the form:
X Fallacy: Believing Y because of Z, when Z doesn’t ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEE Y.
...even though, it turns out, Z should raise the probability you assign to Y.
For example:
Appeal to authority: An expert in the field believing something within that field doesn’t guarantee its truth, but is strong evidence.
Argument from ignorance: The fact that you haven’t heard of any good arguments for X, doesn’t mean X is necessary false, but if most of humanity has conducted a motivated search for it and come up lacking, and you’ve checked all such justifications, that’s strong evidence against X.
Eliezer, I think the point you’ve made here generalizes to several things in the standard fallacy lists, usually which take the form:
X Fallacy: Believing Y because of Z, when Z doesn’t ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEE Y.
...even though, it turns out, Z should raise the probability you assign to Y.
For example:
Appeal to authority: An expert in the field believing something within that field doesn’t guarantee its truth, but is strong evidence.
Argument from ignorance: The fact that you haven’t heard of any good arguments for X, doesn’t mean X is necessary false, but if most of humanity has conducted a motivated search for it and come up lacking, and you’ve checked all such justifications, that’s strong evidence against X.