I think it’s not very clarifying to round up to “military matters.” I think the US’s track record there for the last seventy years has not been very impressive, but the thing I specifically care about is the question: “does the USG spend lots of money on things that some part of it knows are a waste of money?”, to which the answer is: “yes, obviously.” Thus an argument that relies on “surely they wouldn’t waste money in this way” is just not in line with the evidence that we see.
I think it’s not very clarifying to round up to “military matters.” I think the US’s track record there for the last seventy years has not been very impressive, but the thing I specifically care about is the question: “does the USG spend lots of money on things that some part of it knows are a waste of money?”, to which the answer is: “yes, obviously.” Thus an argument that relies on “surely they wouldn’t waste money in this way” is just not in line with the evidence that we see.