This article confirms—among other things—what I suspected about there being an attempt to oust Altman from Loopt for the same reasons as YC/OA, adds some more examples of Altman amnesia & behavior (including what is, since people apparently care, being caught in a clearcut unambiguous public lie), names the law firm in charge of the report (which is happening), and best of all, explains why Sutskever was so upset about the Jakub Pachocki promotion.
Loopt coup: Vox had hinted at this in 2014 but it was unclear; however, WSJ specifically says that Loopt was in chaos and Altman kept working on side-projects while mismanaging Loopt (so, nearly identical to the much later, unconnected, YC & OA accusations), leading to the ‘senior employees’ to (twice!) appeal to the board to fire Altman. You know who won. To quote one of his defenders:
“If he imagines something to be true, it sort of becomes true in his head,” said Mark Jacobstein, co-founder of Jimini Health who served as Loopt’s chief operating officer. “That is an extraordinary trait for entrepreneurs who want to do super ambitious things. It may or may not lead one to stretch, and that can make people uncomfortable.”
Sequoia Capital: the journalists also shed light on the Loopt acquisition. There have long been rumors about the Loopt acquisition by Green Dot being shady (also covered in that Vox article), especially as Loopt didn’t seem to go anywhere under Green Dot so it hardly looked like a great or natural acquisition—but it was unclear how and the discussions seemed to guess that Altman had sold Loopt in a way which made him a lot of money but shafted investors. But it seems that what actually happened was that, again on the side of his Loopt day-job, Altman was doing freelance VC work for Sequoia Capital, and was responsible for getting them into one of the most lucrative startup rounds ever, Stripe. Sequoia then ‘helped engineer an acquisition by another Sequoia-backed company’, Green Dot.
The journalists don’t say this, but the implication here is that Loopt’s acquisition was a highly-deniable kickback to Altman from Sequoia for Stripe & others.
Greg Brockman: also Stripe-related, Brockman’s apparently intense personal loyalty to Altman may stem from this period, where Altman apparently did Brockman a big favor by helping broker the sale of his Stripe shares.
YC firing: some additional details like Jessica Livingston instigating it, one grievance being his hypocrisy over banning outside funds for YC partners (other than him), and also a clearcut lie by Altman: he posted the YC announcement blog post saying he had been moved to YC Chairman… but YC had not, and never did, agreed to that. So that’s why the YC announcements kept getting edited—he’d tried to hustle them into appointing him Chairman to save his face.
To smooth his exit, Altman proposed he move from president to chairman. He pre-emptively published a blog post on the firm’s website announcing the change. But the firm’s partnership had never agreed, and the announcement was later scrubbed from the post.
Nice try, but no cigar. (This is something to keep in mind given my earlier comments about Altman talking about his pride in creating a mature executive team etc—if, after the report is done, he stops being CEO and becomes OA board chairman, that means he’s been kicked out of OA.)
Ilya Sutskever: as mentioned above, I felt that we did not have the full picture why Sutskever was so angered by Jakub Pachocki’s promotion. This answers it! Sutskever was angry because he has watched Altman long enough to understand what the promotion meant:
In early fall this year, Ilya Sutskever, also a board member, was upset because Altman had elevated another AI researcher, Jakub Pachocki, to director of research, according to people familiar with the matter. Sutskever told his board colleagues that the episode reflected a long-running pattern of Altman’s tendency to pit employees against one another or promise resources and responsibilities to two different executives at the same time, yielding conflicts, according to people familiar with the matter…Altman has said he runs OpenAI in a “dynamic” fashion, at times giving people temporary leadership roles and later hiring others for the job. He also reallocates computing resources between teams with little warning, according to people familiar with the matter. [cf. Atlantic, WaPo, the anonymous letter]
Ilya recognized the pattern perhaps in part because he has receipts:
In early October, OpenAI’s chief scientist approached some fellow board members to recommend Altman be fired, citing roughly 20 examples of when he believed Altman misled OpenAI executives over the years. That set off weeks of closed-door talks, ending with Altman’s surprise ouster days before Thanksgiving.
Speaking of receipts, the law firm for the independent report has been chosen: WilmerHale. Unclear if they are investigating yet, but I continue to doubt that it will be done before the tender closes early next month.
the level of sourcing indicates Altman’s halo is severely damaged (“This article is based on interviews with dozens of executives, engineers, current and former employees and friend’s of Altman’s, as well as investors.”). Before, all of this was hidden; as the article notes of the YC firing:
For years, even some of Altman’s closest associates—including Peter Thiel, Altman’s first backer for Hydrazine—didn’t know the circumstances behind Altman’s departure.
If even Altman’s mentor didn’t know, no wonder no one else seems to have known—aside from those directly involved in the firing, like, for example, YC board member Emmett Shear. But now it’s all on the record, with even Graham & Livingston acknowledging the firing (albeit quibbling a little: come on, Graham, if you ‘agree to leave immediately’, that’s still ‘being fired’).
Tash McCauley’s role finally emerges a little more: she had been trying to talk to OA executives without Altman’s presence, and Altman demanded to be informed of any Board communication with employees. It’s unclear if he got his way.
So, a mix of confirmation and minor details continuing to flesh out the overall saga of Sam Altman as someone who excels at finance, corporate knife-fighting, & covering up manipulation but who is not actually that good at managing or running a company (reminiscent of Xi Jinping), and a few surprises for me.
On a minor level, if McCauley had been trying to talk to employees, then it’s more likely that she was the one that the whistleblowers like Nathan Labenz had been talking to rather than Helen Toner; Toner might have been just the weakest link in her public writings providing a handy excuse. (...Something something 5 lines by the most honest of men...) On a more important level, if Sutskever has a list of 20 documented instances (!) of Altman lying to OA executives (and the Board?), then the Slack discussion may not have been so important after all, and Altman may have good reason to worry—he keeps saying he doesn’t recall any of these unfortunate episodes, and it is hard to defend yourself if you can no longer remember what might turn up...
An OA update: it’s been quiet, but the investigation is over. And Sam Altman won. (EDIT: yep.)
To recap, because I believe I haven’t been commenting on this since December (this is my last big comment, skimming my LW profile): WilmerHale was brought in to do the investigation. The tender offer, to everyone’s relief, went off. A number of embarrassing new details about Sam Altman have surfaced: in particular, about his enormous chip fab plan with substantial interest from giants like Temasek, and how the OA VC Fund turns out to be owned by Sam Altman (his explanation was it saved some paperwork and he just forgot to ever transfer it to OA). Ilya Sutskever remains in hiding and lawyered up (his silence became particularly striking with the release of Sora). There have been increasing reports the past week or two that the WilmerHale investigation was coming to a close—and I am told that the investigators were not offering confidentiality and the investigation was narrowly scoped to the firing. (There was also some OA drama with the Musk lawfare & the OA response, but aside from offering an abject lesson in how not to redact sensitive information, it’s both irrelevant & unimportant.)
The main theme of the article is clarifying Murati’s role: as I speculated, she was in fact telling the Board about Altman’s behavior patterns, and it fills in that she had gone further and written it up in a memo to him, and even threatened to leave with Sutskever.
But it reveals a number of other important claims: the investigation is basically done and wrapping up. The new board apparently has been chosen. Sutskever’s lawyer has gone on the record stating that Sutskever did not approach the board about Altman (?!). And it reveals the board confronted Altman over his ownership of the OA VC Fund (in addition to all his many other compromises of interest**) imply.
So, what does that mean?
First, as always, in a war of leaks, cui bono? Who is leaking this to the NYT? Well, it’s not the pro-Altman faction: they are at war with the NYT, and these leaks do them no good whatsoever. It’s not the lawyers: these are high-powered elite lawyers, hired for confidentiality and discretion. It’s not Murati or Sutskever, given their lack of motive, and the former’s panicked internal note & Sutskever’s lawyer’s denial. Of the current interim board (which is about to finish its job and leave, handing it over to the expanded replacement board), probably not Larry Summers/Brett Taylor—they were brought on to oversee the report as neutral third party arbitrators, and if they (a simple majority of the temporary board) want something in their report, no one can stop them from putting it there. It could be Adam D’Angelo or the ex-board: they are the ones who don’t control the report, and they also already have access to all of the newly-leaked-but-old information about Murati & Sutskever & the VC Fund.
So, it’s the anti-Altman faction, associated with the old board. What does that mean?
I think that what this leak indirectly reveals is simple: Sam Altman has won. The investigation will exonerate him, and it is probably true that it was so narrowly scoped from the beginning that it was never going to plausibly provide grounds for his ouster. What these leaks are, are a loser’s spoiler move: the last gasps of the anti-Altman faction, reduced to leaking bits from the final report to friendly media (Metz/NYT) to annoy Altman, and strike first. They got some snippets out before the Altman faction shops around highly selective excerpts to their own friendly media outlets (the usual suspects—The Information, Semafor, Kara Swisher) from the final officialized report to set the official record (at which point the rest of the confidential report is sent down the memory hole). Welp, it’s been an interesting few months, but l’affaire Altman is over. RIP.
Evidence, aside from simply asking who benefits from these particular leaks at the last minute, is that Sutskever remains in hiding & his lawyer is implausibly denying he had anything to do with it, while if you read Altman on social media, you’ll notice that he’s become ever more talkative since December, particularly in the last few weeks—glorying in the instant memeification of ‘$7 trillion’ - as has OA PR* and we have heard no more rhetoric about what an amazing team of execs OA has and how he’s so proud to have tutored them to replace him. Because there will be no need to replace him now. The only major reasons he will have to leave is if it’s necessary as a stepping stone to something even higher (eg. running the $7t chip fab consortium, running for US President) or something like a health issue.
So, upshot: I speculate that the report will exonerate Altman (although it can’t restore his halo, as it cannot & will not address things like his firing from YC which have been forced out into public light by this whole affair) and he will be staying as CEO and may be returning to the expanded board; the board will probably include some weak uncommitted token outsiders for their diversity and independence, but have an Altman plurality and we will see gradual selective attrition/replacement in favor of Altman loyalists until he has a secure majority robust to at least 1 flip and preferably 2. Having retaken irrevocable control of OA, further EA purges should be unnecessary, and Altman will probably refocus on the other major weakness exposed by the coup: the fact that his frenemy MS controls OA’s lifeblood. (The fact that MS was such a potent weapon for Altman in the fight is a feature while he’s outside the building, but a severe bug once he’s back inside.) People are laughing at the ‘$7 trillion’. But Altman isn’t laughing. Those GPUs are life and death for OA now. And why should he believe he can’t do it? Things have always worked out for him before...
Predictions, if being a bit more quantitative will help clarify my speculations here: Altman will still be CEO of OA on June 1st (85%); the new OA board will include Altman (60%); Ilya Sutskever and Mira Murati will leave OA or otherwise take on some sort of clearly diminished role by year-end (90%, 75%; cf. Murati’s desperate-sounding internal note); the full unexpurgated non-summary report will not be released (85%, may be hard to judge because it’d be easy to lie about); serious chip fab/Tigris efforts will continue (75%); Microsoft’s observer seat will be upgraded to a voting seat (25%).
* Eric Newcomer (usually a bit more acute than this) asks “One thing that I find weird: OpenAI comms is giving very pro Altman statements when the board/WilmerHale are still conducting the investigation. Isn’t communications supposed to work for the company, not just the CEO? The board is in charge here still, no?” NARRATOR: “The board is not in charge still.”
** Compare the current OA PR statement on the VC Fund to Altman’s past position on, say, Helen Toner or Reid Hoffman or Shivon Zilis, or Altman’s investment in chip startups touting letters of commitment from OA or his ongoing Hydrazine investment in OA which sadly, he has never quite had the time to dispose of in any of the OA tender offers. As usual, CoIs only apply to people Altman doesn’t trust—“for my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law”.
Ilya Sutskever and Mira Murati will leave OA or otherwise take on some sort of clearly diminished role by year-end (90%, 75%; cf. Murati’s desperate-sounding internal note)
Mira Murati announced today she is resigning from OA. (I have also, incidentally, won a $1k bet with an AI researcher on this prediction.)
See my earlier comments on 23 June 2024 about what ‘OA rot’ would look like; I do not see any revisions necessary given the past 3 months.
As for Murati finally leaving (perhaps she was delayed by the voice shipping delays), I don’t think it matters too much as far as I could tell (not like Sutskever or Brockman leaving), she was competent but not critical; probably the bigger deal is that her leaving is apparently a big surprise to a lot of OAers (maybe I should’ve taken more bets?), and so will come as a blow to morale and remind people of last year’s events.
...When Mira [Murati] informed me this morning that she was leaving, I was saddened but of course support her decision. For the past year, she has been building out a strong bench of leaders that will continue our progress.
I also want to share that Bob [McGrew] and Barret [Zoph] have decided to depart OpenAI. Mira, Bob, and Barret made these decisions independently of each other and amicably, but the timing of Mira’s decision was such that it made sense to now do this all at once, so that we can work together for a smooth handover to the next generation of leadership.
...Mark [Chen] is going to be our new SVP of Research and will now lead the research org in partnership with Jakub [Pachocki] as Chief Scientist. This has been our long-term succession plan for Bob someday; although it’s happening sooner than we thought, I couldn’t be more excited that Mark is stepping into the role. Mark obviously has deep technical expertise, but he has also learned how to be a leader and manager in a very impressive way over the past few years.
Josh[ua] Achiam is going to take on a new role as Head of Mission Alignment, working across the company to ensure that we get all pieces (and culture) right to be in a place to succeed at the mission.
...Mark, Jakub, Kevin, Srinivas, Matt, and Josh will report to me. I have over the past year or so spent most of my time on the non-technical parts of our organization; I am now looking forward to spending most of my time on the technical and product parts of the company.
...Leadership changes are a natural part of companies, especially companies that grow so quickly and are so demanding. I obviously won’t pretend it’s natural for this one to be so abrupt, but we are not a normal company, and I think the reasons Mira explained to me (there is never a good time, anything not abrupt would have leaked, and she wanted to do this while OpenAI was in an upswing) make sense.
(I wish Dr Achiam much luck in his new position at Hogwarts.)
It does not actually make any sense to me that Mira wanted to prevent leaks, and therefore didn’t even tell Sam that she was leaving ahead of time. What would she be afraid of, that Sam would leak the fact that she was planning to leave… for what benefit?
Possibilities:
She was being squeezed out, or otherwise knew her time was up, and didn’t feel inclined to make it a maximally comfortable parting for OpenAI. She was willing to eat the cost of her own equity potentially losing a bunch of value if this derailed the ongoing investment round, as well as the reputational cost of Sam calling out the fact that she, the CTO of the most valuable startup in the world, resigned with no notice for no apparent good reason.
Sam is lying or otherwise being substantially misleading about the circumstances of Mira’s resignation, i.e. it was not in fact a same-day surprise to him. (And thinks she won’t call him out on it?)
Of course it doesn’t make sense. It doesn’t have to. It just has to be a face-saving excuse for why she pragmatically told him at the last possible minute. (Also, it’s not obvious that the equity round hasn’t basically closed.)
At least from the intro, it sounds like my predictions were on-point: re-appointed Altman (I waffled about this at 60% because while his narcissism/desire to be vindicated requires him to regain his board seat, because anything less is a blot on his escutcheon, and also the pragmatic desire to lock down the board, both strongly militated for his reinstatement, it also seems so blatant a powergrab in this context that surely he wouldn’t dare...? guess he did), released to an Altman outlet (The Information), with 3 weak apparently ‘independent’ and ‘diverse’ directors to pad out the board and eventually be replaced by full Altman loyalists—although I bet if one looks closer into these three women (Sue Desmond-Hellmann, Nicole Seligman, & Fidji Simo), one will find at least one has buried Altman ties. (Fidji Simo, Instacart CEO, seems like the most obvious one there: Instacart was YC S12.)
As predicted, the full report will not be released, only the ‘summary’ focused on exonerating Altman. Also as predicted, ‘the mountain has given birth to a mouse’ and the report was narrowly scoped to just the firing: they bluster about “reviewing 30,000 documents” (easy enough when you can just grep Slack + text messages + emails...), but then admit that they looked only at “the events concerning the November 17, 2023 removal” and interviewed hardly anyone (“dozens of interviews” barely even covers the immediate dramatis personae, much less any kind of investigation into Altman’s chip stuff, Altman’s many broken promises, Brockman’s complainers etc). Doesn’t sound like they have much to show for over 3 months of work by the smartest & highest-paid lawyers, does it… It also seems like they indeed did not promise confidentiality or set up any kind of anonymous reporting mechanism, given that they mention no such thing and include setting up a hotline for whistleblowers as a ‘recommendation’ for the future (ie. there was no such thing before or during the investigation). So, it was a whitewash from the beginning. Tellingly, there is nothing about Microsoft, and no hint their observer will be upgraded (or that there still even is one). And while flattering to Brockman, there is nothing about Murati—free tip to all my VC & DL startup acquaintances, there’s a highly competent AI manager who’s looking for exciting new opportunities, even if she doesn’t realize it yet.
Also entertaining is that you can see the media spin happening in real time. What WilmerHales signs off on:
WilmerHale found that the prior Board acted within its broad discretion to terminate Mr. Altman, but also found that his conduct did not mandate removal.
Which is… less than complimentary? One would hope a CEO does a little bit better than merely not engage in ‘conduct which mandates removal’? And turns into headlines like
(Nothing from Kara Swisher so far, but judging from her Twitter, she’s too busy promoting her new book and bonding with Altmanover their mutual dislike of Elon Musk to spare any time for relatively-minor-sounding news.)
OK, so what was not as predicted? What is surprising?
This is not a full replacement board, but implies that Adam D’Angelo/Brett Taylor/Larry Summers are all staying on the board, at least for now. (So the new composition is D’Angelo/Taylor/Summers/Altman/Demond-Hellmann/Seligman/Simo plus the unknown Microsoft non-voting observer.) This is surprising, but it may simply be a quotidian logistics problem—they hadn’t settled on 3 more adequately diverse and prima-facie qualified OA board candidates yet, but the report was finished and it was more important to wind things up, and they’ll get to the remainder later. (Perhaps Brockman will get his seat back?)
EDIT: A HNer points out that today, March 8th, is “International Women’s Day”, and this is probably the reason for the exact timing of the announcement. If so, they may well have already picked the remaining candidates (Brockman?), but those weren’t women and so got left out of the announcement. Stay tuned, I guess. EDITEDIT: the video call/press conference seems to confirm that they do plan more board appointments: “OpenAI will continue to expand the board moving forward, according to a Zoom call with reporters.” So that is consistent with the hurried women-only announcement.
And while flattering to Brockman, there is nothing about Murati—free tip to all my VC & DL startup acquaintances, there’s a highly competent AI manager who’s looking for exciting new opportunities, even if she doesn’t realize it yet.
(Fixed. This is a surname typo I make an unbelievable number of times because I reflexively overcorrect it to ‘Sumners’, due to reading a lot more of Scott Sumner than Larry Summers. Ugh—just caught myself doing it again in a Reddit comment...)
It was either Hydrazine or YC. In either case, my point remains true: he’s chosen to not dispose of his OA stake, whatever vehicle it is held in, even though it would be easy for someone of his financial acumen to do so by a sale or equivalent arrangement, forcing an embarrassing asterisk to his claims to have no direct financial conflict of interest in OA LLC—and one which comes up regularly in bad OA PR (particularly by people who believe it is less than candid to say you have no financial interest in OA when you totally do), and a stake which might be quite large at this point*, and so is particularly striking given his attitude towards much smaller conflicts supposedly risking bad OA PR. (This is in addition to the earlier conflicts of interest in Hydrazine while running YC or the interest of outsiders in investing in Hydrazine, apparently as a stepping stone towards OA.)
* if he invested a ‘small’ amount via some vehicle before he even went full-time at OA, when OA was valued at some very small amount like $50m or $100m, say, and OA’s now valued at anywhere up to $90,000m or >900x more, and further, he strongly believes it’s going to be worth far more than that in the near-future… Sure, it may be worth ‘just’ $500m or ‘just’ $1000m after dilution or whatever, but to most people that’s pretty serious money!
Why do you think McCauley is likely to be the board member Labenz spoke to? I had inferred that it was someone not particularly concerned about safety given that Labenz reported them saying they could be easily request access to the model if they’d wanted to (and hadn’t). I took the point of the anecdote to be ‘here was a board member not concerned about safety’.
Because there is not currently any evidence that Toner was going around talking to a bunch of people, whereas this says McCauley was doing so. If I have to guess “did Labenz talk to the person who was talking to a bunch of people in OA, or did he talk to the person who was as far as I know not talking to a bunch of people in OA?”, I am going to guess the former.
They weren’t the only non employee board members though—that’s what I meant by the part about not being concerned about safety, that I took it to rule out both Toner and McCauley.
(Although it for some other reason you were only looking at Toner and McCauley, then no, I would say the person going around speaking to OAI employees is_less_ likely to be out of the loop on GPT-4’s capabilities)
The other ones are unlikely. Shivon Zilis & Reid Hoffman had left by this point; Will Hurd might or might not still be on the board at this point but wouldn’t be described nor recommended by Labenz’s acquaintance as researching AI safety, as that does not describe Hurd or D’Angelo; Brockman, Altman, and Sutskever are right out (Sutskever researches AI safety but Superalignment was a year away); by process of elimination, over 2023, the only board members he could have been plausibly contacting would be Toner and McCauley, and while Toner weakly made more sense before, now McCauley does.
(The description of them not having used the model unfortunately does not distinguish either one—none of the writings connected to them sound like they have all that much hands-on experience and would be eagerly prompt-engineering away at GPT-4-base the moment they got access. And I agree that this is a big mistake, but it is, even more unfortunately, and extremely common one—I remain shocked that Altman had apparently never actually used GPT-3 before he basically bet the company on it. There is a widespread attitude, even among those bullish about the economics, that GPT-3 or GPT-4 are just ‘tools’, which are mere ‘stochastic parrots’, and have no puzzling internal dynamics or complexities. I have been criticizing this from the start, but the problem is, ‘sampling can show the presence of knowledge and not the absence’, so if you don’t think there’s anything interesting there, your prompts are a mirror which reflect only your low expectations; and the safety tuning makes it worse by hiding most of the agency & anomalies, often in ways that look like good things. For example, the rhyming poetry ought to alarm everyone who sees it, because of what it implies underneath—but it doesn’t. This is why descriptions of Sydney or GPT-4-base are helpful: they are warning shots from the shoggoth behind the friendly tool-AI ChatGPT UI mask.)
I think you might be misremembering the podcast? Nathan said that he was assured that the board as a whole was serious about safety, but I don’t remember the specific board member being recommended as someone researching AI safety (or otherwise more pro safety than the rest of the board). I went back through the transcript to check and couldn’t find any reference to what you’ve said.
“ And ultimately, in the end, basically everybody said, “What you should do is go talk to somebody on the OpenAI board. Don’t blow it up. You don’t need to go outside of the chain of command, certainly not yet. Just go to the board. And there are serious people on the board, people that have been chosen to be on the board of the governing nonprofit because they really care about this stuff. They’re committed to long-term AI safety, and they will hear you out. And if you have news that they don’t know, they will take it seriously.” So I was like, “OK, can you put me in touch with a board member?” And so they did that, and I went and talked to this one board member. And this was the moment where it went from like, “whoa” to “really whoa.””
I was not referring to the podcast (which I haven’t actually read yet because from the intro it seems wildly out of date and from a long time ago) but to Labenz’s original Twitter thread turned into a Substack post. I think you misinterpret what he is saying in that transcript because it is loose and extemporaneous “they’re committed” could just as easily refer to “are serious people on the board” who have “been chosen” for that (implying that there are other members of the board not chosen for that); and that is what he says in the written down post:
I consulted with a few friends in AI safety research…The Board, everyone agreed, included multiple serious people who were committed to safe development of AI and would definitely hear me out, look into the state of safety practice at the company, and take action as needed.What happened next shocked me. The Board member I spoke to was largely in the dark about GPT-4. They had seen a demo and had heard that it was strong, but had not used it personally. They said they were confident they could get access if they wanted to. I couldn’t believe it. I got access via a “Customer Preview” 2+ months ago, and you as a Board member haven’t even tried it‽ This thing is human-level, for crying out loud (though not human-like!).
This quote doesn’t say anything about the board member/s being people who are researching AI safety though—it’s Nathan’s friends who are in AI safety research not the board members.
I agree that based on this quote, it could have very well been just a subset of the board. But I believe Nathan’s wife works for CEA (and he’s previously MCed an EAG), and Tasha is (or was?) on the board of EVF US, and so idk, if it’s Tasha he spoke to and the “multiple people” was just her and Helen, I would have expected a rather different description of events/vibe. E.g. something like ‘I googled who was on the board and realised that two of them were EAs, so I reached out to discuss’. I mean maybe that is closer to what happened and it’s just being obfuscated, either way is confusing to me tbh.
Btw, by “out of date” do you mean relative to now, or to when the events took place? From what I can see, the tweet thread, the substack post and the podcast were all published the same day—Nov 22nd 2023. The link I provided is just 80k excerpting the original podcast.
The WSJ dashes our hopes for a quiet Christmas by dropping on Christmas Eve a further extension of all this reporting: “Sam Altman’s Knack for Dodging Bullets—With a Little Help From Bigshot Friends: The OpenAI CEO lost the confidence of top leaders in the three organizations he has directed, yet each time he’s rebounded to greater heights”, Seetharam et al 2024-12-24 (Archive.is, HN; annotated excerpts).
This article confirms—among other things—what I suspected about there being an attempt to oust Altman from Loopt for the same reasons as YC/OA, adds some more examples of Altman amnesia & behavior (including what is, since people apparently care, being caught in a clearcut unambiguous public lie), names the law firm in charge of the report (which is happening), and best of all, explains why Sutskever was so upset about the Jakub Pachocki promotion.
Loopt coup: Vox had hinted at this in 2014 but it was unclear; however, WSJ specifically says that Loopt was in chaos and Altman kept working on side-projects while mismanaging Loopt (so, nearly identical to the much later, unconnected, YC & OA accusations), leading to the ‘senior employees’ to (twice!) appeal to the board to fire Altman. You know who won. To quote one of his defenders:
Sequoia Capital: the journalists also shed light on the Loopt acquisition. There have long been rumors about the Loopt acquisition by Green Dot being shady (also covered in that Vox article), especially as Loopt didn’t seem to go anywhere under Green Dot so it hardly looked like a great or natural acquisition—but it was unclear how and the discussions seemed to guess that Altman had sold Loopt in a way which made him a lot of money but shafted investors. But it seems that what actually happened was that, again on the side of his Loopt day-job, Altman was doing freelance VC work for Sequoia Capital, and was responsible for getting them into one of the most lucrative startup rounds ever, Stripe. Sequoia then ‘helped engineer an acquisition by another Sequoia-backed company’, Green Dot.
The journalists don’t say this, but the implication here is that Loopt’s acquisition was a highly-deniable kickback to Altman from Sequoia for Stripe & others.
Greg Brockman: also Stripe-related, Brockman’s apparently intense personal loyalty to Altman may stem from this period, where Altman apparently did Brockman a big favor by helping broker the sale of his Stripe shares.
YC firing: some additional details like Jessica Livingston instigating it, one grievance being his hypocrisy over banning outside funds for YC partners (other than him), and also a clearcut lie by Altman: he posted the YC announcement blog post saying he had been moved to YC Chairman… but YC had not, and never did, agreed to that. So that’s why the YC announcements kept getting edited—he’d tried to hustle them into appointing him Chairman to save his face.
Nice try, but no cigar. (This is something to keep in mind given my earlier comments about Altman talking about his pride in creating a mature executive team etc—if, after the report is done, he stops being CEO and becomes OA board chairman, that means he’s been kicked out of OA.)
Ilya Sutskever: as mentioned above, I felt that we did not have the full picture why Sutskever was so angered by Jakub Pachocki’s promotion. This answers it! Sutskever was angry because he has watched Altman long enough to understand what the promotion meant:
Ilya recognized the pattern perhaps in part because he has receipts:
Speaking of receipts, the law firm for the independent report has been chosen: WilmerHale. Unclear if they are investigating yet, but I continue to doubt that it will be done before the tender closes early next month.
the level of sourcing indicates Altman’s halo is severely damaged (“This article is based on interviews with dozens of executives, engineers, current and former employees and friend’s of Altman’s, as well as investors.”). Before, all of this was hidden; as the article notes of the YC firing:
If even Altman’s mentor didn’t know, no wonder no one else seems to have known—aside from those directly involved in the firing, like, for example, YC board member Emmett Shear. But now it’s all on the record, with even Graham & Livingston acknowledging the firing (albeit quibbling a little: come on, Graham, if you ‘agree to leave immediately’, that’s still ‘being fired’).
Tash McCauley’s role finally emerges a little more: she had been trying to talk to OA executives without Altman’s presence, and Altman demanded to be informed of any Board communication with employees. It’s unclear if he got his way.
So, a mix of confirmation and minor details continuing to flesh out the overall saga of Sam Altman as someone who excels at finance, corporate knife-fighting, & covering up manipulation but who is not actually that good at managing or running a company (reminiscent of Xi Jinping), and a few surprises for me.
On a minor level, if McCauley had been trying to talk to employees, then it’s more likely that she was the one that the whistleblowers like Nathan Labenz had been talking to rather than Helen Toner; Toner might have been just the weakest link in her public writings providing a handy excuse. (...Something something 5 lines by the most honest of men...) On a more important level, if Sutskever has a list of 20 documented instances (!) of Altman lying to OA executives (and the Board?), then the Slack discussion may not have been so important after all, and Altman may have good reason to worry—he keeps saying he doesn’t recall any of these unfortunate episodes, and it is hard to defend yourself if you can no longer remember what might turn up...
An OA update: it’s been quiet, but the investigation is over. And Sam Altman won. (EDIT: yep.)
To recap, because I believe I haven’t been commenting on this since December (this is my last big comment, skimming my LW profile): WilmerHale was brought in to do the investigation. The tender offer, to everyone’s relief, went off. A number of embarrassing new details about Sam Altman have surfaced: in particular, about his enormous chip fab plan with substantial interest from giants like Temasek, and how the OA VC Fund turns out to be owned by Sam Altman (his explanation was it saved some paperwork and he just forgot to ever transfer it to OA). Ilya Sutskever remains in hiding and lawyered up (his silence became particularly striking with the release of Sora). There have been increasing reports the past week or two that the WilmerHale investigation was coming to a close—and I am told that the investigators were not offering confidentiality and the investigation was narrowly scoped to the firing. (There was also some OA drama with the Musk lawfare & the OA response, but aside from offering an abject lesson in how not to redact sensitive information, it’s both irrelevant & unimportant.)
The news today comes from the NYT leaking information from the final report: “Key OpenAI Executive [Mira Murati] Played a Pivotal Role in Sam Altman’s Ouster” (mirror; EDIT: largely confirmed by Murati in internal note).
The main theme of the article is clarifying Murati’s role: as I speculated, she was in fact telling the Board about Altman’s behavior patterns, and it fills in that she had gone further and written it up in a memo to him, and even threatened to leave with Sutskever.
But it reveals a number of other important claims: the investigation is basically done and wrapping up. The new board apparently has been chosen. Sutskever’s lawyer has gone on the record stating that Sutskever did not approach the board about Altman (?!). And it reveals the board confronted Altman over his ownership of the OA VC Fund (in addition to all his many other compromises of interest**) imply.
So, what does that mean?
First, as always, in a war of leaks, cui bono? Who is leaking this to the NYT? Well, it’s not the pro-Altman faction: they are at war with the NYT, and these leaks do them no good whatsoever. It’s not the lawyers: these are high-powered elite lawyers, hired for confidentiality and discretion. It’s not Murati or Sutskever, given their lack of motive, and the former’s panicked internal note & Sutskever’s lawyer’s denial. Of the current interim board (which is about to finish its job and leave, handing it over to the expanded replacement board), probably not Larry Summers/Brett Taylor—they were brought on to oversee the report as neutral third party arbitrators, and if they (a simple majority of the temporary board) want something in their report, no one can stop them from putting it there. It could be Adam D’Angelo or the ex-board: they are the ones who don’t control the report, and they also already have access to all of the newly-leaked-but-old information about Murati & Sutskever & the VC Fund.
So, it’s the anti-Altman faction, associated with the old board. What does that mean?
I think that what this leak indirectly reveals is simple: Sam Altman has won. The investigation will exonerate him, and it is probably true that it was so narrowly scoped from the beginning that it was never going to plausibly provide grounds for his ouster. What these leaks are, are a loser’s spoiler move: the last gasps of the anti-Altman faction, reduced to leaking bits from the final report to friendly media (Metz/NYT) to annoy Altman, and strike first. They got some snippets out before the Altman faction shops around highly selective excerpts to their own friendly media outlets (the usual suspects—The Information, Semafor, Kara Swisher) from the final officialized report to set the official record (at which point the rest of the confidential report is sent down the memory hole). Welp, it’s been an interesting few months, but l’affaire Altman is over. RIP.
Evidence, aside from simply asking who benefits from these particular leaks at the last minute, is that Sutskever remains in hiding & his lawyer is implausibly denying he had anything to do with it, while if you read Altman on social media, you’ll notice that he’s become ever more talkative since December, particularly in the last few weeks—glorying in the instant memeification of ‘$7 trillion’ - as has OA PR* and we have heard no more rhetoric about what an amazing team of execs OA has and how he’s so proud to have tutored them to replace him. Because there will be no need to replace him now. The only major reasons he will have to leave is if it’s necessary as a stepping stone to something even higher (eg. running the $7t chip fab consortium, running for US President) or something like a health issue.
So, upshot: I speculate that the report will exonerate Altman (although it can’t restore his halo, as it cannot & will not address things like his firing from YC which have been forced out into public light by this whole affair) and he will be staying as CEO and may be returning to the expanded board; the board will probably include some weak uncommitted token outsiders for their diversity and independence, but have an Altman plurality and we will see gradual selective attrition/replacement in favor of Altman loyalists until he has a secure majority robust to at least 1 flip and preferably 2. Having retaken irrevocable control of OA, further EA purges should be unnecessary, and Altman will probably refocus on the other major weakness exposed by the coup: the fact that his frenemy MS controls OA’s lifeblood. (The fact that MS was such a potent weapon for Altman in the fight is a feature while he’s outside the building, but a severe bug once he’s back inside.) People are laughing at the ‘$7 trillion’. But Altman isn’t laughing. Those GPUs are life and death for OA now. And why should he believe he can’t do it? Things have always worked out for him before...
Predictions, if being a bit more quantitative will help clarify my speculations here: Altman will still be CEO of OA on June 1st (85%); the new OA board will include Altman (60%); Ilya Sutskever and Mira Murati will leave OA or otherwise take on some sort of clearly diminished role by year-end (90%, 75%; cf. Murati’s desperate-sounding internal note); the full unexpurgated non-summary report will not be released (85%, may be hard to judge because it’d be easy to lie about); serious chip fab/Tigris efforts will continue (75%); Microsoft’s observer seat will be upgraded to a voting seat (25%).
* Eric Newcomer (usually a bit more acute than this) asks “One thing that I find weird: OpenAI comms is giving very pro Altman statements when the board/WilmerHale are still conducting the investigation. Isn’t communications supposed to work for the company, not just the CEO? The board is in charge here still, no?” NARRATOR: “The board is not in charge still.”
** Compare the current OA PR statement on the VC Fund to Altman’s past position on, say, Helen Toner or Reid Hoffman or Shivon Zilis, or Altman’s investment in chip startups touting letters of commitment from OA or his ongoing Hydrazine investment in OA which sadly, he has never quite had the time to dispose of in any of the OA tender offers. As usual, CoIs only apply to people Altman doesn’t trust—“for my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law”.
EDIT: Zvi commentary: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/openai-the-board-expands
Mira Murati announced today she is resigning from OA. (I have also, incidentally, won a $1k bet with an AI researcher on this prediction.)
Do you think this will have any impact on OpenAI’s future revenues / ability to deliver frontier-level models?
See my earlier comments on 23 June 2024 about what ‘OA rot’ would look like; I do not see any revisions necessary given the past 3 months.
As for Murati finally leaving (perhaps she was delayed by the voice shipping delays), I don’t think it matters too much as far as I could tell (not like Sutskever or Brockman leaving), she was competent but not critical; probably the bigger deal is that her leaving is apparently a big surprise to a lot of OAers (maybe I should’ve taken more bets?), and so will come as a blow to morale and remind people of last year’s events.
EDIT: Zoph Barret & Bob McGrew are now gone too. Altman has released a statement, confirming that Murati only quit today:
(I wish Dr Achiam much luck in his new position at Hogwarts.)
It does not actually make any sense to me that Mira wanted to prevent leaks, and therefore didn’t even tell Sam that she was leaving ahead of time. What would she be afraid of, that Sam would leak the fact that she was planning to leave… for what benefit?
Possibilities:
She was being squeezed out, or otherwise knew her time was up, and didn’t feel inclined to make it a maximally comfortable parting for OpenAI. She was willing to eat the cost of her own equity potentially losing a bunch of value if this derailed the ongoing investment round, as well as the reputational cost of Sam calling out the fact that she, the CTO of the most valuable startup in the world, resigned with no notice for no apparent good reason.
Sam is lying or otherwise being substantially misleading about the circumstances of Mira’s resignation, i.e. it was not in fact a same-day surprise to him. (And thinks she won’t call him out on it?)
???
Of course it doesn’t make sense. It doesn’t have to. It just has to be a face-saving excuse for why she pragmatically told him at the last possible minute. (Also, it’s not obvious that the equity round hasn’t basically closed.)
Looks like you were right, at least if the reporting in this article is correct, and I’m interpreting the claim accurately.
At least from the intro, it sounds like my predictions were on-point: re-appointed Altman (I waffled about this at 60% because while his narcissism/desire to be vindicated requires him to regain his board seat, because anything less is a blot on his escutcheon, and also the pragmatic desire to lock down the board, both strongly militated for his reinstatement, it also seems so blatant a powergrab in this context that surely he wouldn’t dare...? guess he did), released to an Altman outlet (The Information), with 3 weak apparently ‘independent’ and ‘diverse’ directors to pad out the board and eventually be replaced by full Altman loyalists—although I bet if one looks closer into these three women (Sue Desmond-Hellmann, Nicole Seligman, & Fidji Simo), one will find at least one has buried Altman ties. (Fidji Simo, Instacart CEO, seems like the most obvious one there: Instacart was YC S12.)
The official OA press releases are out confirming The Information: https://openai.com/blog/review-completed-altman-brockman-to-continue-to-lead-openai https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-new-members-to-board-of-directors
He’s probably right.
As predicted, the full report will not be released, only the ‘summary’ focused on exonerating Altman. Also as predicted, ‘the mountain has given birth to a mouse’ and the report was narrowly scoped to just the firing: they bluster about “reviewing 30,000 documents” (easy enough when you can just grep Slack + text messages + emails...), but then admit that they looked only at “the events concerning the November 17, 2023 removal” and interviewed hardly anyone (“dozens of interviews” barely even covers the immediate dramatis personae, much less any kind of investigation into Altman’s chip stuff, Altman’s many broken promises, Brockman’s complainers etc). Doesn’t sound like they have much to show for over 3 months of work by the smartest & highest-paid lawyers, does it… It also seems like they indeed did not promise confidentiality or set up any kind of anonymous reporting mechanism, given that they mention no such thing and include setting up a hotline for whistleblowers as a ‘recommendation’ for the future (ie. there was no such thing before or during the investigation). So, it was a whitewash from the beginning. Tellingly, there is nothing about Microsoft, and no hint their observer will be upgraded (or that there still even is one). And while flattering to Brockman, there is nothing about Murati—free tip to all my VC & DL startup acquaintances, there’s a highly competent AI manager who’s looking for exciting new opportunities, even if she doesn’t realize it yet.
Also entertaining is that you can see the media spin happening in real time. What WilmerHales signs off on:
Which is… less than complimentary? One would hope a CEO does a little bit better than merely not engage in ‘conduct which mandates removal’? And turns into headlines like
“OpenAI’s Sam Altman Returns to Board After Probe Clears Him”
(Nothing from Kara Swisher so far, but judging from her Twitter, she’s too busy promoting her new book and bonding with Altman over their mutual dislike of Elon Musk to spare any time for relatively-minor-sounding news.)
OK, so what was not as predicted? What is surprising?
This is not a full replacement board, but implies that Adam D’Angelo/Brett Taylor/Larry Summers are all staying on the board, at least for now. (So the new composition is D’Angelo/Taylor/Summers/Altman/Demond-Hellmann/Seligman/Simo plus the unknown Microsoft non-voting observer.) This is surprising, but it may simply be a quotidian logistics problem—they hadn’t settled on 3 more adequately diverse and prima-facie qualified OA board candidates yet, but the report was finished and it was more important to wind things up, and they’ll get to the remainder later. (Perhaps Brockman will get his seat back?)
EDIT: A HNer points out that today, March 8th, is “International Women’s Day”, and this is probably the reason for the exact timing of the announcement. If so, they may well have already picked the remaining candidates (Brockman?), but those weren’t women and so got left out of the announcement. Stay tuned, I guess. EDITEDIT: the video call/press conference seems to confirm that they do plan more board appointments: “OpenAI will continue to expand the board moving forward, according to a Zoom call with reporters.” So that is consistent with the hurried women-only announcement.
Heh, here it is: https://x.com/miramurati/status/1839025700009030027
Nitpick: Larry Summers not Larry Sumners
(Fixed. This is a surname typo I make an unbelievable number of times because I reflexively overcorrect it to ‘Sumners’, due to reading a lot more of Scott Sumner than Larry Summers. Ugh—just caught myself doing it again in a Reddit comment...)
Yeah I figured Scott Sumner must have been involved.
Source?
@gwern I’ve failed to find a source saying that Hydrazine invested in OpenAI. If it did, that would be a big deal; it would make this a lie.
It was either Hydrazine or YC. In either case, my point remains true: he’s chosen to not dispose of his OA stake, whatever vehicle it is held in, even though it would be easy for someone of his financial acumen to do so by a sale or equivalent arrangement, forcing an embarrassing asterisk to his claims to have no direct financial conflict of interest in OA LLC—and one which comes up regularly in bad OA PR (particularly by people who believe it is less than candid to say you have no financial interest in OA when you totally do), and a stake which might be quite large at this point*, and so is particularly striking given his attitude towards much smaller conflicts supposedly risking bad OA PR. (This is in addition to the earlier conflicts of interest in Hydrazine while running YC or the interest of outsiders in investing in Hydrazine, apparently as a stepping stone towards OA.)
* if he invested a ‘small’ amount via some vehicle before he even went full-time at OA, when OA was valued at some very small amount like $50m or $100m, say, and OA’s now valued at anywhere up to $90,000m or >900x more, and further, he strongly believes it’s going to be worth far more than that in the near-future… Sure, it may be worth ‘just’ $500m or ‘just’ $1000m after dilution or whatever, but to most people that’s pretty serious money!
Why do you think McCauley is likely to be the board member Labenz spoke to? I had inferred that it was someone not particularly concerned about safety given that Labenz reported them saying they could be easily request access to the model if they’d wanted to (and hadn’t). I took the point of the anecdote to be ‘here was a board member not concerned about safety’.
Because there is not currently any evidence that Toner was going around talking to a bunch of people, whereas this says McCauley was doing so. If I have to guess “did Labenz talk to the person who was talking to a bunch of people in OA, or did he talk to the person who was as far as I know not talking to a bunch of people in OA?”, I am going to guess the former.
They weren’t the only non employee board members though—that’s what I meant by the part about not being concerned about safety, that I took it to rule out both Toner and McCauley.
(Although it for some other reason you were only looking at Toner and McCauley, then no, I would say the person going around speaking to OAI employees is_less_ likely to be out of the loop on GPT-4’s capabilities)
The other ones are unlikely. Shivon Zilis & Reid Hoffman had left by this point; Will Hurd might or might not still be on the board at this point but wouldn’t be described nor recommended by Labenz’s acquaintance as researching AI safety, as that does not describe Hurd or D’Angelo; Brockman, Altman, and Sutskever are right out (Sutskever researches AI safety but Superalignment was a year away); by process of elimination, over 2023, the only board members he could have been plausibly contacting would be Toner and McCauley, and while Toner weakly made more sense before, now McCauley does.
(The description of them not having used the model unfortunately does not distinguish either one—none of the writings connected to them sound like they have all that much hands-on experience and would be eagerly prompt-engineering away at GPT-4-base the moment they got access. And I agree that this is a big mistake, but it is, even more unfortunately, and extremely common one—I remain shocked that Altman had apparently never actually used GPT-3 before he basically bet the company on it. There is a widespread attitude, even among those bullish about the economics, that GPT-3 or GPT-4 are just ‘tools’, which are mere ‘stochastic parrots’, and have no puzzling internal dynamics or complexities. I have been criticizing this from the start, but the problem is, ‘sampling can show the presence of knowledge and not the absence’, so if you don’t think there’s anything interesting there, your prompts are a mirror which reflect only your low expectations; and the safety tuning makes it worse by hiding most of the agency & anomalies, often in ways that look like good things. For example, the rhyming poetry ought to alarm everyone who sees it, because of what it implies underneath—but it doesn’t. This is why descriptions of Sydney or GPT-4-base are helpful: they are warning shots from the shoggoth behind the friendly tool-AI ChatGPT UI mask.)
I think you might be misremembering the podcast? Nathan said that he was assured that the board as a whole was serious about safety, but I don’t remember the specific board member being recommended as someone researching AI safety (or otherwise more pro safety than the rest of the board). I went back through the transcript to check and couldn’t find any reference to what you’ve said.
“ And ultimately, in the end, basically everybody said, “What you should do is go talk to somebody on the OpenAI board. Don’t blow it up. You don’t need to go outside of the chain of command, certainly not yet. Just go to the board. And there are serious people on the board, people that have been chosen to be on the board of the governing nonprofit because they really care about this stuff. They’re committed to long-term AI safety, and they will hear you out. And if you have news that they don’t know, they will take it seriously.” So I was like, “OK, can you put me in touch with a board member?” And so they did that, and I went and talked to this one board member. And this was the moment where it went from like, “whoa” to “really whoa.””
(https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/nathan-labenz-openai-red-team-safety/?utm_campaign=podcast__nathan-labenz&utm_source=80000+Hours+Podcast&utm_medium=podcast#excerpt-from-the-cognitive-revolution-nathans-narrative-001513)
I was not referring to the podcast (which I haven’t actually read yet because from the intro it seems wildly out of date and from a long time ago) but to Labenz’s original Twitter thread turned into a Substack post. I think you misinterpret what he is saying in that transcript because it is loose and extemporaneous “they’re committed” could just as easily refer to “are serious people on the board” who have “been chosen” for that (implying that there are other members of the board not chosen for that); and that is what he says in the written down post:
This quote doesn’t say anything about the board member/s being people who are researching AI safety though—it’s Nathan’s friends who are in AI safety research not the board members.
I agree that based on this quote, it could have very well been just a subset of the board. But I believe Nathan’s wife works for CEA (and he’s previously MCed an EAG), and Tasha is (or was?) on the board of EVF US, and so idk, if it’s Tasha he spoke to and the “multiple people” was just her and Helen, I would have expected a rather different description of events/vibe. E.g. something like ‘I googled who was on the board and realised that two of them were EAs, so I reached out to discuss’. I mean maybe that is closer to what happened and it’s just being obfuscated, either way is confusing to me tbh.
Btw, by “out of date” do you mean relative to now, or to when the events took place? From what I can see, the tweet thread, the substack post and the podcast were all published the same day—Nov 22nd 2023. The link I provided is just 80k excerpting the original podcast.