pollsters will have attempted to correct mistakes, and if they knew that there would be an R/D bias this time, they’d adjust in the opposite way, hence the error must be unpredictable.
Exactly. Silver has discussed this dynamic in some of his old FiveThirtyEight articles. The key is to appreciate that polling error is not an effect one can naively predict by looking at past data, because it is mediated by polling agencies’ attempts to correct it.
Exactly. Silver has discussed this dynamic in some of his old FiveThirtyEight articles. The key is to appreciate that polling error is not an effect one can naively predict by looking at past data, because it is mediated by polling agencies’ attempts to correct it.