Romeo Dean and I ran a slightly modified version of this format for members of AISST and we found it a very useful and enjoyable activity!
We first gathered to do 2 hours of reading and discussing, and then we spent 4 hours switching between silent writing and discussing in small groups.
The main changes we made are:
We removed the part where people estimate probabilities of ASI and doom happening by the end of each other’s scenarios.
We added a formal benchmark forecasting part for 7 benchmarks using private Metaculus questions (forecasting values at Jan 31 2025):
GPQA
SWE-bench
GAIA
InterCode (Bash)
WebArena
Number of METR tasks completed
ELO on LMSys arena relative to GPT-4-1106
We think the first change made it better, but in hindsight we would have reduced the number of benchmarks to around 3 (GPQA, SWE-bench and LMSys ELO), or given participants much more time.
Romeo Dean and I ran a slightly modified version of this format for members of AISST and we found it a very useful and enjoyable activity!
We first gathered to do 2 hours of reading and discussing, and then we spent 4 hours switching between silent writing and discussing in small groups.
The main changes we made are:
We removed the part where people estimate probabilities of ASI and doom happening by the end of each other’s scenarios.
We added a formal benchmark forecasting part for 7 benchmarks using private Metaculus questions (forecasting values at Jan 31 2025):
GPQA
SWE-bench
GAIA
InterCode (Bash)
WebArena
Number of METR tasks completed
ELO on LMSys arena relative to GPT-4-1106
We think the first change made it better, but in hindsight we would have reduced the number of benchmarks to around 3 (GPQA, SWE-bench and LMSys ELO), or given participants much more time.