Seems like your model completely neglects to include uncertainty in it… it assumes that in 10 years breakthroughs will definitely be made… a better cost effectiveness model might be cost effectiveness of how much funding would increase the likeliness of a breakthrough, and would almost certainly lead to immediately lower estimates (without even trying to account for the typical reasons that interventions are less effective than they initially appear)
Seems like your model completely neglects to include uncertainty in it… it assumes that in 10 years breakthroughs will definitely be made… a better cost effectiveness model might be cost effectiveness of how much funding would increase the likeliness of a breakthrough, and would almost certainly lead to immediately lower estimates (without even trying to account for the typical reasons that interventions are less effective than they initially appear)
This is an enormous problem with this model.