It can’t be a few hundred because that would imply that the non-natural-causes death rate is about 20-30% of the natural-causes death rate, which isn’t true.
If you have a 0.1% per year chance of dying “non-naturally”, the probability of you surviving for 100 years is 0.999^100 = 90% which looks to be order-of-magnitude correct for contemporary Western countries. This implies that your chances to live for 500 years are 0.999^500 = 60%, for a thousand years -- 37%.
If you have a 0.1% per year chance of dying “non-naturally”, the probability of you surviving for 100 years is 0.999^100 = 90% which looks to be order-of-magnitude correct for contemporary Western countries. This implies that your chances to live for 500 years are 0.999^500 = 60%, for a thousand years -- 37%.
if P(life length=x) = p(1-p)^(x-1) with p=0.001, then E(life length) = 1/p = 1000. It’s a geometric random variable.
Which is NOT A FEW HUNDRED YEARS