Two different formulations of the problem that Chris faced:
Chris got a message saying that he had to enter the codes, or else the frontpage would be destroyed. He believed it, and thought that he had to enter the codes to save the frontpage. Arguably, if he had destroyed the frontpage by inaction (ie., if the message had been real, and failing to enter the codes would’ve caused the destruction of the frontpage) he would have been far less chastised by the local culture than if he had destroyed the frontpage by action (ie., what actually happened). In this case, is it more in the spirit of Petrov to take the action that your local culture will blame you the least for, or the action that you honestly think will save the frontpage?
Chris got a message that he had to enter the codes, or else bad things would happen, just like Petrov got a sign that the US had launched nukes, and that the russian military needed to be informed. The message wasn’t real, and in fact, the decision with the least bad consequences was to ignore it. In this case, is it more in the spirit of Petrov to consider that a message might not be what it’s claiming to be (and accurately determining that it’s not) or to just believe it?
I don’t know what the take-away is. Maybe we should celebrate Petrov’s skepticism/perceptiveness more, and not just his willingness to not defer to superiors.
You make a good point that I haven’t seen posted elsewhere:
Chris got a message that he had to enter the codes, or else bad things would happen, just like Petrov got a sign that the US had launched nukes, and that the russian military needed to be informed
The attacker targeting Chris made this year’s Petrov Day experiment more accurate to history than the one in 2019. In 2019 there was no incentive to push the button. In 2020 there was an apparent, but false incentive to do so, just like there was for Petrov.
Two different formulations of the problem that Chris faced:
Chris got a message saying that he had to enter the codes, or else the frontpage would be destroyed. He believed it, and thought that he had to enter the codes to save the frontpage. Arguably, if he had destroyed the frontpage by inaction (ie., if the message had been real, and failing to enter the codes would’ve caused the destruction of the frontpage) he would have been far less chastised by the local culture than if he had destroyed the frontpage by action (ie., what actually happened). In this case, is it more in the spirit of Petrov to take the action that your local culture will blame you the least for, or the action that you honestly think will save the frontpage?
Chris got a message that he had to enter the codes, or else bad things would happen, just like Petrov got a sign that the US had launched nukes, and that the russian military needed to be informed. The message wasn’t real, and in fact, the decision with the least bad consequences was to ignore it. In this case, is it more in the spirit of Petrov to consider that a message might not be what it’s claiming to be (and accurately determining that it’s not) or to just believe it?
I don’t know what the take-away is. Maybe we should celebrate Petrov’s skepticism/perceptiveness more, and not just his willingness to not defer to superiors.
You make a good point that I haven’t seen posted elsewhere:
The attacker targeting Chris made this year’s Petrov Day experiment more accurate to history than the one in 2019. In 2019 there was no incentive to push the button. In 2020 there was an apparent, but false incentive to do so, just like there was for Petrov.
This was also mentioned in the comments of On Destroying the World