1. The mafia tendencies (careerist groups working together out of self-interest and not to advance science itself) are present in the West as well these days. In fact the term was first used in this way by Italian academics.
2. They’re not against big breakthroughs in PRC, esp. obvious ones. The bureaucracy bases promotions, raises, etc. on metrics like publications in top journals, cititations, … However there are very obvious wins that they will go after in a coordinated way—including AI, semiconductors, new energy tech, etc.
3. I could be described as a China hawk in that I’ve been pointing to a US-China competition as unavoidable for over a decade. But I think I have more realistic views about what is happening in PRC than most China hawks. I also try to focus on simple descriptive analysis rather than getting distracted by normative midwit stuff.
4. There is coordinated planning btw govt and industry in PRC to stay at the frontier in AI/AGI/ASI. They are less susceptible to “visionaries” (ie grifters) so you’ll find fewer doomers or singularitarians, etc. Certainly not in the top govt positions. The quiet confidence I mentioned extends to AI, not just semiconductors and other key technologies.”
(All of which I consider to be consistent with my summary, if anyone is wondering, and thus, given that Hsu did not choose to object to any of the main points of my summary in his clarifications, are confirmation.)
Steve Hsu clarified some things on my thread about this discussion: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1861970671527510378
“Clarifications:
1. The mafia tendencies (careerist groups working together out of self-interest and not to advance science itself) are present in the West as well these days. In fact the term was first used in this way by Italian academics.
2. They’re not against big breakthroughs in PRC, esp. obvious ones. The bureaucracy bases promotions, raises, etc. on metrics like publications in top journals, cititations, … However there are very obvious wins that they will go after in a coordinated way—including AI, semiconductors, new energy tech, etc.
3. I could be described as a China hawk in that I’ve been pointing to a US-China competition as unavoidable for over a decade. But I think I have more realistic views about what is happening in PRC than most China hawks. I also try to focus on simple descriptive analysis rather than getting distracted by normative midwit stuff.
4. There is coordinated planning btw govt and industry in PRC to stay at the frontier in AI/AGI/ASI. They are less susceptible to “visionaries” (ie grifters) so you’ll find fewer doomers or singularitarians, etc. Certainly not in the top govt positions. The quiet confidence I mentioned extends to AI, not just semiconductors and other key technologies.”
(All of which I consider to be consistent with my summary, if anyone is wondering, and thus, given that Hsu did not choose to object to any of the main points of my summary in his clarifications, are confirmation.)