I contemplated a strategy of always taking the average of the listed predictions. But that would be boring.
A less boring strategy: make two accounts, one assigning probabilities based on your intuition alone; the other based on the average of the listed predictions. Compare their calibrations.
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Less Wrong (text)
Less Wrong (link)
I contemplated a strategy of always taking the average of the listed predictions. But that would be boring.
A less boring strategy: make two accounts, one assigning probabilities based on your intuition alone; the other based on the average of the listed predictions. Compare their calibrations.