“Some locations (Japan, Singapore, Australia and Hong Kong) have managed to avoid exponential growth despite having a large number of cases.”
Probably due in Australia to the heterogenous population density and rather low number of infections to date … but that could easily change in the bigger cities … while density is proportional to N the proportion of encounters goes something like N-squared (where N is the population).
Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan were able to artificially reduce their effective density … to reduce the encounter rate. Australia can try to do that too in the bigger cities especially!
Over the past week or so Australia has lost containment and is running at a doubling time of 3-3.5 days. I don’t know whether that correlates with higher concentration of cases in big cities—my prior would be that most imported cases would arrive in the big cities in the first place but I haven’t checked this.
“Some locations (Japan, Singapore, Australia and Hong Kong) have managed to avoid exponential growth despite having a large number of cases.”
Probably due in Australia to the heterogenous population density and rather low number of infections to date … but that could easily change in the bigger cities … while density is proportional to N the proportion of encounters goes something like N-squared (where N is the population).
Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan were able to artificially reduce their effective density … to reduce the encounter rate. Australia can try to do that too in the bigger cities especially!
Over the past week or so Australia has lost containment and is running at a doubling time of 3-3.5 days. I don’t know whether that correlates with higher concentration of cases in big cities—my prior would be that most imported cases would arrive in the big cities in the first place but I haven’t checked this.