The doubling times in this post only really apply for the start of an outbreak. Once control measures are put in place the doubling time changes—see this post. To look at this properly you’d need a more complex model—SIR is a good starting point but proper models are much more complex.
Thank you very much Bucky. These formula work for our data so far. Wondering if have you tried to calculate confidence interval for the forecast cases. Any formulas or sources will be appreciated.
Thank you very much Bucky. Is there a formula to calculate the forecast count based on DT.
Rearranging the above:
casest=casest−1×21dt
The doubling times in this post only really apply for the start of an outbreak. Once control measures are put in place the doubling time changes—see this post. To look at this properly you’d need a more complex model—SIR is a good starting point but proper models are much more complex.
Thank you very much Bucky. These formula work for our data so far. Wondering if have you tried to calculate confidence interval for the forecast cases. Any formulas or sources will be appreciated.