Hadn’t realized that the last week was dominated by those countries, although it seems obvious in retrospect.
I think that testing being ramped up in different rates at different countries is a little incompatible with all countries exhibiting relatively the same doubling time. Countries that ramped up testing quicker should see faster doubling times, so the observed doubling time should be tied to the speed at which countries ramped up testing.
My (rough) model was that all countries basically ramped up testing at the same-ish rate once they had a non-trivial number of infections in their country, so they had fast doubling times in the beginning but slow doubling times once they had caught the majority of people infected (i.e. the infection had been spreading for many days before they realized and had to spend the first week or so of testing just trying to catch the people that were already infected). This doesn’t quite make that much sense though, because it’s obvious that not all countries are ramping up testing at the same speed. But that confuses me, because that means that the doubling time should be different for all the countries?
Thanks for this analysis. I have moderately updated towards a lower doubling time.
Hadn’t realized that the last week was dominated by those countries, although it seems obvious in retrospect.
I think that testing being ramped up in different rates at different countries is a little incompatible with all countries exhibiting relatively the same doubling time. Countries that ramped up testing quicker should see faster doubling times, so the observed doubling time should be tied to the speed at which countries ramped up testing.
My (rough) model was that all countries basically ramped up testing at the same-ish rate once they had a non-trivial number of infections in their country, so they had fast doubling times in the beginning but slow doubling times once they had caught the majority of people infected (i.e. the infection had been spreading for many days before they realized and had to spend the first week or so of testing just trying to catch the people that were already infected). This doesn’t quite make that much sense though, because it’s obvious that not all countries are ramping up testing at the same speed. But that confuses me, because that means that the doubling time should be different for all the countries?
Thanks for this analysis. I have moderately updated towards a lower doubling time.