My experience with the GJP suggests that it’s not. Some people there, for instance, are on record as assigning a 75% probability to the proposition “The number of registered Syrian conflict refugees reported by the UNHCR will exceed 250,000 at any point before 1 April 2013”.
I am a registered participant in one of the Good Judgement Project teams. I have literally no idea what my estimates of the probabilities are for quite a few of the events for which I have ‘current’ predictions. Depending on what you mean by ‘some people’, you might just be picking up on the fact that some people just don’t care as much about the accuracy of their predictions on GJP as you do.
some people just don’t care as much about the accuracy of their predictions on GJP
Agreed. Insofar as GJP is a contest, and the objective is to win, my remarks should be read with the implied proviso “assuming you care about winning”. In the prelude to the post where I discuss my GJP participation in more detail I used an analogy with playing Poker. I acknowledge that some people play Poker for the thrill of the game, and don’t actually mind losing their money—and there are variable levels of motivation all the way up to dedicated players.
I am a registered participant in one of the Good Judgement Project teams. I have literally no idea what my estimates of the probabilities are for quite a few of the events for which I have ‘current’ predictions. Depending on what you mean by ‘some people’, you might just be picking up on the fact that some people just don’t care as much about the accuracy of their predictions on GJP as you do.
Agreed. Insofar as GJP is a contest, and the objective is to win, my remarks should be read with the implied proviso “assuming you care about winning”. In the prelude to the post where I discuss my GJP participation in more detail I used an analogy with playing Poker. I acknowledge that some people play Poker for the thrill of the game, and don’t actually mind losing their money—and there are variable levels of motivation all the way up to dedicated players.