Say you wanted to formalize the concepts of “inside and outside views” to some degree. You might say that your inside view is a Bayes net or joint conditional probability distribution—this mathematical object formalizes your prior.
Unlike your inside view, your outside view consists of forms of deferring to outside experts. The Bayes nets that inform their thinking are sealed away, and you can’t inspect these. You can ask outside experts to explain their arguments, but there’s an interaction cost associated with inspecting the experts’ views. Realistically, you never fully internalize an outside expert’s Bayes net.
Crucially, this means you can’t update their Bayes net after conditioning on a new observation! Model outside experts as observed assertions (claiming whatever). These assertions are potentially correlated with other observations you make. But because you have little of the prior that informs those assertions, you can’t update the prior when it’s right (or wrong).
To the extent that it’s expensive to theorize about outside experts’ reasoning, the above model explains why you want to use and strengthen your inside view (instead of just deferring to outside really smart people). It’s because your inside view will grow stronger with use, but your outside view won’t.
Epistemic status: Half-baked thought.
Say you wanted to formalize the concepts of “inside and outside views” to some degree. You might say that your inside view is a Bayes net or joint conditional probability distribution—this mathematical object formalizes your prior.
Unlike your inside view, your outside view consists of forms of deferring to outside experts. The Bayes nets that inform their thinking are sealed away, and you can’t inspect these. You can ask outside experts to explain their arguments, but there’s an interaction cost associated with inspecting the experts’ views. Realistically, you never fully internalize an outside expert’s Bayes net.
Crucially, this means you can’t update their Bayes net after conditioning on a new observation! Model outside experts as observed assertions (claiming whatever). These assertions are potentially correlated with other observations you make. But because you have little of the prior that informs those assertions, you can’t update the prior when it’s right (or wrong).
To the extent that it’s expensive to theorize about outside experts’ reasoning, the above model explains why you want to use and strengthen your inside view (instead of just deferring to outside really smart people). It’s because your inside view will grow stronger with use, but your outside view won’t.