Fancy epistemic tools won’t override the basics of good epistemics:
You are embedded in a 3D spatial world, progressing in a time dimension. You want to get better at predicting events in advance, so you want to find the underlying generator for this 3D world’s events. This means that you’re rooting around in math space, trying to find the mathematical object that your observational trajectory is embedded in.
Some observations of yours are differentially more likely in some math objects than in others, and so it’s more likely that your world is the former math object than the latter. You start with some guess as to how relatively likely you are to live in all these different math objects, and eliminate all parts of that weighted possibility space that are inconsistent with what you observe. A world that anti-predicted what happened with 60% of its probability mass only keeps the remaining 40% of probability mass after that inconsistency. Always ask yourself: was that observation more consistent with one generator than with another generator? If so, then you “update” towards the first generator being your world, vs. the second generator—relatively more of the first generator was consistent with that observation than was the second generator.
Fancy epistemic tools won’t override the basics of good epistemics:
You are embedded in a 3D spatial world, progressing in a time dimension. You want to get better at predicting events in advance, so you want to find the underlying generator for this 3D world’s events. This means that you’re rooting around in math space, trying to find the mathematical object that your observational trajectory is embedded in.
Some observations of yours are differentially more likely in some math objects than in others, and so it’s more likely that your world is the former math object than the latter. You start with some guess as to how relatively likely you are to live in all these different math objects, and eliminate all parts of that weighted possibility space that are inconsistent with what you observe. A world that anti-predicted what happened with 60% of its probability mass only keeps the remaining 40% of probability mass after that inconsistency. Always ask yourself: was that observation more consistent with one generator than with another generator? If so, then you “update” towards the first generator being your world, vs. the second generator—relatively more of the first generator was consistent with that observation than was the second generator.