I think all of these questions are significantly underpriced.
Small nitpick here: price and probability are two things. One could well agree that you’re right on the probability but still don’t buy because the timeline is too long, or because a small chance of winning in one scenario is more important than a large chance of winning in the opposite scenario.
Interesting thoughts and model, thanks.
Small nitpick here: price and probability are two things. One could well agree that you’re right on the probability but still don’t buy because the timeline is too long, or because a small chance of winning in one scenario is more important than a large chance of winning in the opposite scenario.