I think there are only two likely ways how the future can go with AGI replacing human labor—if we somehow solve other hard problems and won’t get killed or wireheaded or get a dystopian future right away.
My point of view is based on observations of how different countries work and their past directions. However, things can go differently in different parts of the world. They can also devolve into bad scenarios, even in parts that you would think are well-posed to be good.
This situation resembles certain resource-rich nations where authoritarian regimes and their allied oligarchs control vast natural wealth, while the general population remains impoverished and politically marginalized. Most of the income is generated and used by the elite and the government. The rest are poor and have no access to resources. Crime is high, but the state is also mafia-like. Elite has access to AIs and automation that does all the work. The lower class is deprived of the possibility to use higher technology, is deprived of freedom, and is terrorized to not cause issues. Dissidents and protesters are eliminated.
Like in modern democracies, there is a feedback loop between society and government. The government in such places has its own interest in keeping people at least happy enough, healthy enough, and low crime. This means that it will take measures against the extreme division of income and people’s misery and falling into crime, like it did in the past. The most likely two strategies to be employed are simple and tested to some extent empirically:
Change or set the limit of the number of hours for which people can be lawfully employed to be smaller. For example, in most countries in Europe, we have laws that allow people to be employed for 40 hours a week, and to work longer means that the employer needs to give additional benefits or higher wages. So this disincentivizes employing for more than 40 hours a week (and most employers in central and western Europe keep to that standard). This way, as we have fewer jobs viable for humans, we force employers to employ more humans for the same work, but with a smaller amount of working hours and slightly smaller pay. Many countries in Europe are soon up to change from 40 to 35 BTW.
Basic income. People who earn less than some amount will get paid up to that amount, or alternatively , everyone gets paid some amount from the country’s budget (taxes). Still, countries are not eager to pass it right now because of human psychology and backslash, but some tests have been done, and the results are promising.
Long-term option 1 will rather evolve into some dystopian future that might end up with the sterilization/elimination of most humans, with AGI-enabled elites and their armies of robots left.
Long-term option 2 will rather evolve into a post-scarcity future with most people living on a basic income and pursuing their own goals (entertainment, thinking, socializing, human art, etc.), which some smaller elite who manage and support AI and automation.
I think there are only two likely ways how the future can go with AGI replacing human labor—if we somehow solve other hard problems and won’t get killed or wireheaded or get a dystopian future right away.
My point of view is based on observations of how different countries work and their past directions. However, things can go differently in different parts of the world. They can also devolve into bad scenarios, even in parts that you would think are well-posed to be good.
This situation resembles certain resource-rich nations where authoritarian regimes and their allied oligarchs control vast natural wealth, while the general population remains impoverished and politically marginalized. Most of the income is generated and used by the elite and the government. The rest are poor and have no access to resources. Crime is high, but the state is also mafia-like. Elite has access to AIs and automation that does all the work. The lower class is deprived of the possibility to use higher technology, is deprived of freedom, and is terrorized to not cause issues. Dissidents and protesters are eliminated.
Like in modern democracies, there is a feedback loop between society and government. The government in such places has its own interest in keeping people at least happy enough, healthy enough, and low crime. This means that it will take measures against the extreme division of income and people’s misery and falling into crime, like it did in the past. The most likely two strategies to be employed are simple and tested to some extent empirically:
Change or set the limit of the number of hours for which people can be lawfully employed to be smaller. For example, in most countries in Europe, we have laws that allow people to be employed for 40 hours a week, and to work longer means that the employer needs to give additional benefits or higher wages. So this disincentivizes employing for more than 40 hours a week (and most employers in central and western Europe keep to that standard). This way, as we have fewer jobs viable for humans, we force employers to employ more humans for the same work, but with a smaller amount of working hours and slightly smaller pay. Many countries in Europe are soon up to change from 40 to 35 BTW.
Basic income. People who earn less than some amount will get paid up to that amount, or alternatively , everyone gets paid some amount from the country’s budget (taxes). Still, countries are not eager to pass it right now because of human psychology and backslash, but some tests have been done, and the results are promising.
Long-term option 1 will rather evolve into some dystopian future that might end up with the sterilization/elimination of most humans, with AGI-enabled elites and their armies of robots left.
Long-term option 2 will rather evolve into a post-scarcity future with most people living on a basic income and pursuing their own goals (entertainment, thinking, socializing, human art, etc.), which some smaller elite who manage and support AI and automation.