I believe that the near future (next 10 years) involves a fragile world and heavily offense-dominant tech, such that a cohesive governing body (not necessarily a single mind, it could be a coalition of multiple AIs and humans) will be necessary to enforce safety. Particularly, preventing the creation/deployment of self-replicating harms (rogue amoral AI, bioweapons, etc.).
On the other hand, I don’t think we can be sure what the more distant future (>50 years?) will look like. It may be that d/acc succeeds in advancing defense-dominant technology enough to make society more robust to violent defection. In such a world, it would be safe to have more multi-polar governance.
I am quite uncertain about how the world might transition to uni-polar governance, whether this will involve a singleton AI or a world government or a coalition of powerful AIs or what. Just that the ‘suicide switch’ for all of humanity and its AIs will for a time be quite cheap and accessible, and require quite a bit of surveillance and enforcement to ensure no defector can choose it.
I believe that the near future (next 10 years) involves a fragile world and heavily offense-dominant tech, such that a cohesive governing body (not necessarily a single mind, it could be a coalition of multiple AIs and humans) will be necessary to enforce safety. Particularly, preventing the creation/deployment of self-replicating harms (rogue amoral AI, bioweapons, etc.).
On the other hand, I don’t think we can be sure what the more distant future (>50 years?) will look like. It may be that d/acc succeeds in advancing defense-dominant technology enough to make society more robust to violent defection. In such a world, it would be safe to have more multi-polar governance.
I am quite uncertain about how the world might transition to uni-polar governance, whether this will involve a singleton AI or a world government or a coalition of powerful AIs or what. Just that the ‘suicide switch’ for all of humanity and its AIs will for a time be quite cheap and accessible, and require quite a bit of surveillance and enforcement to ensure no defector can choose it.