Highest risk are probably NATO airbases in Poland, Slovakia, and Romania used to supply and support Ukraine. There may also be nuclear retaliation against north German naval bases. They’re more likely to attack smaller American cities first before escalating.
Disagree. Nuclear attacks on NATO, let alone US cities, is already escalated to full retaliatory engagement. Nuclear war won’t be a gradual escalation—it’ll be small-scale and “tolerable” by the US and allies until it’s not, at which point it’s a step-change to armageddon.
If whoever is running Russia is suicidal, sure, but if they still want to win, it might make sense to use strategic weapons tactically to force the other side to accept a stalemate right up to the end.
Yup, it’s tricky to know what’s “tolerable”, and there’s also an option for deniable terrorist use of “stolen” nukes. But in any case, it won’t be a gradual escalation—use of nukes against a NATO member or on US soil is the classic Schelling line that can’t be crossed slowly. (Literally; that’s a large part of Thomas Schelling’s work).
Highest risk are probably NATO airbases in Poland, Slovakia, and Romania used to supply and support Ukraine. There may also be nuclear retaliation against north German naval bases. They’re more likely to attack smaller American cities first before escalating.
Disagree. Nuclear attacks on NATO, let alone US cities, is already escalated to full retaliatory engagement. Nuclear war won’t be a gradual escalation—it’ll be small-scale and “tolerable” by the US and allies until it’s not, at which point it’s a step-change to armageddon.
If whoever is running Russia is suicidal, sure, but if they still want to win, it might make sense to use strategic weapons tactically to force the other side to accept a stalemate right up to the end.
Yup, it’s tricky to know what’s “tolerable”, and there’s also an option for deniable terrorist use of “stolen” nukes. But in any case, it won’t be a gradual escalation—use of nukes against a NATO member or on US soil is the classic Schelling line that can’t be crossed slowly. (Literally; that’s a large part of Thomas Schelling’s work).
I didn’t realize there was an automatic threshold of total retaliation the moment Russia nukes Ramstein air base.
it’s called mutually assured destruction for a reason.