After substantial additional work ( http://www.gwern.net/hpmor#the-review-race-unexpected-circumstances-versus-mor ), I’ve concluded that omitting UC’s reviews is a drastic simplification and when one takes into account the slow accretion, MoR is more likely to catch up in <5 years than <2 years.
After substantial additional work ( http://www.gwern.net/hpmor#the-review-race-unexpected-circumstances-versus-mor ), I’ve concluded that omitting UC’s reviews is a drastic simplification and when one takes into account the slow accretion, MoR is more likely to catch up in <5 years than <2 years.