While there are many people who are annoyed by Christian Evangelicals, I feel that it is difficult to argue against their effectiveness. They exist because they are willing to talk to people again and again about their beliefs until those people convert.
Do you have any reason to believe that Christian Evangelicals are ineffective at persuading people? Keep in mind that a 5% conversion rate is doing a pretty damn good job when it comes to changing people’s minds.
The margin of sampling error is +- 3% while the difference the 1980 percentage and the 2005 percentage is 5%. I do think that a trend which has a p value less than .05 is statistically significant.
My link shows the percentage of people who self-identify as Evangelicals. The data starts in 1991 and ends in 2005. The first values (1991-1993) are 41%, 42%, 46%, 44%, 43%, and the last values (2004-2005) are 42%, 39%, 42%, 47%, 40%.
I see no trend.
Your link shows the percentage of people who answer three proxy questions. The data starts in 1976 and ends in 2005. Over that time period one question goes up (47% to 52%), one goes down (38% to 32%) and the third goes up as well (35% to 48%). Do note that the survey says “When looking at the percentage of Americans who say yes to all three of these questions, slightly more than one in five (22%) American adults could be considered evangelical” and that’s about *half* of the number of people who self-identify as such.
Given all this, I see no evidence that the mind share of the Evangelicals in the US is increasing.
The proxy I am specifically looking at for evangelical Christianity is people who claim to have spread the “good news” about Jesus to someone. In other words, asking people whether they themselves have evangelized (the data on this is the fairly clear 47% to 52% upward trend). To me, it makes a lot of sense to call someone an Evangelical Christian if they have in fact evangelized for Christianity. And if we disagree on that definition, then there is really nothing more I can say.
To me, it makes a lot of sense to call someone an Evangelical Christian if they have in fact evangelized for Christianity.
The Pope would be surprised to hear that, I think.
All Christians of all denominations are supposed to spread the Good Word. Christianity is an actively proselytizing religion and has always been one. The Roman Catholic Church, in particular, has been quite active on that front. As have been Mormons, Adventists, Jehova’s Witnesses, etc. etc.
Then let me respecify what I should have stated originally, Christians who evangelize for Christianity are effective at persuading others to join the cause. I am concerned with how bugging people about a cause (aka evangelizing for it) will effect the number of people in that cause. The numbers shown suggest that if we consider evangelizing Christians to be a group, then they are growing as support of my hypothesis.
Oh, I’m well aware that this technique could be used to spread irrational and harmful memes. But if you’re trying to persuade someone to rationality using techniques of argument which presume rationality, it’s unlikely that you’ll succeed. So you may have to get your rationalist hands dirty.
Your call on what’s the better outcome: successfully convincing someone to be more rational (but having their agency violated through irrational persuasion) or leaving that person in the dark. It’s a nontrivial moral dilemma which should only be considered once rational persuasion has failed.
While there are many people who are annoyed by Christian Evangelicals, I feel that it is difficult to argue against their effectiveness. They exist because they are willing to talk to people again and again about their beliefs until those people convert.
Do you have any reason to believe that Christian Evangelicals are ineffective at persuading people? Keep in mind that a 5% conversion rate is doing a pretty damn good job when it comes to changing people’s minds.
Yes. Their mind share in the US is not increasing.
False, according to both the source you cited and http://www.gallup.com/poll/16519/us-evangelicals-how-many-walk-walk.aspx
False, really? So looking at the data in these two links you think you see a statistically significant trend?
Don’t forget that your (second) link is concerned with proxies for being an Evangelical...
The margin of sampling error is +- 3% while the difference the 1980 percentage and the 2005 percentage is 5%. I do think that a trend which has a p value less than .05 is statistically significant.
I am not sure which data you are looking at.
My link shows the percentage of people who self-identify as Evangelicals. The data starts in 1991 and ends in 2005. The first values (1991-1993) are 41%, 42%, 46%, 44%, 43%, and the last values (2004-2005) are 42%, 39%, 42%, 47%, 40%.
I see no trend.
Your link shows the percentage of people who answer three proxy questions. The data starts in 1976 and ends in 2005. Over that time period one question goes up (47% to 52%), one goes down (38% to 32%) and the third goes up as well (35% to 48%). Do note that the survey says “When looking at the percentage of Americans who say yes to all three of these questions, slightly more than one in five (22%) American adults could be considered evangelical” and that’s about *half* of the number of people who self-identify as such.
Given all this, I see no evidence that the mind share of the Evangelicals in the US is increasing.
The proxy I am specifically looking at for evangelical Christianity is people who claim to have spread the “good news” about Jesus to someone. In other words, asking people whether they themselves have evangelized (the data on this is the fairly clear 47% to 52% upward trend). To me, it makes a lot of sense to call someone an Evangelical Christian if they have in fact evangelized for Christianity. And if we disagree on that definition, then there is really nothing more I can say.
The Pope would be surprised to hear that, I think.
All Christians of all denominations are supposed to spread the Good Word. Christianity is an actively proselytizing religion and has always been one. The Roman Catholic Church, in particular, has been quite active on that front. As have been Mormons, Adventists, Jehova’s Witnesses, etc. etc.
Then let me respecify what I should have stated originally, Christians who evangelize for Christianity are effective at persuading others to join the cause. I am concerned with how bugging people about a cause (aka evangelizing for it) will effect the number of people in that cause. The numbers shown suggest that if we consider evangelizing Christians to be a group, then they are growing as support of my hypothesis.
If it works regardless of what it is you’re telling people to do, that makes it dark arts.
Oh, I’m well aware that this technique could be used to spread irrational and harmful memes. But if you’re trying to persuade someone to rationality using techniques of argument which presume rationality, it’s unlikely that you’ll succeed. So you may have to get your rationalist hands dirty.
Your call on what’s the better outcome: successfully convincing someone to be more rational (but having their agency violated through irrational persuasion) or leaving that person in the dark. It’s a nontrivial moral dilemma which should only be considered once rational persuasion has failed.