This misses the point of Zvi’s comment. Alice saying “there is no evidence of X” is more likely in worlds where Alice is BSing than in worlds where Alice is attempting to provide factual information (ie Level 1 communication). That is orthogonal to any actual calculations of {amount of evidence observed} / {amount of evidence that could have been observed, given the amount of looking that has been done}.
Also, too, the second thing is a gradient, not a dichotomy. And “your priors” are just a way of saying {amount of evidence observed that I know about} / {amount of evidence that could have been observed, given what I know about the amount of looking that has been done}
This misses the point of Zvi’s comment. Alice saying “there is no evidence of X” is more likely in worlds where Alice is BSing than in worlds where Alice is attempting to provide factual information (ie Level 1 communication). That is orthogonal to any actual calculations of {amount of evidence observed} / {amount of evidence that could have been observed, given the amount of looking that has been done}.
Also, too, the second thing is a gradient, not a dichotomy. And “your priors” are just a way of saying {amount of evidence observed that I know about} / {amount of evidence that could have been observed, given what I know about the amount of looking that has been done}