A thought occurred to me, and it’s so logical, I concluded that it must be true.
Is this satire?
Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Russia. In other words, Russia will do a nuclear test. Like North Korea did.
With (literally) a nuclear option, pushing the nuclear button is a last resort. The path there is through various escalations, without any individual step being too overt.
For example, if Putin wants to demonstrate their willingness to use nuclear weapons, he can:
Create unusual movement/activity at one of their nuclear bases, in a way that it is visible to other countries
Carry out a nuclear test inside Russia
Carry out a nuclear test in some deserted area outside of Russia
Carry out testing of the delivery mechanism (ICBM? Via airplane?) just without a nuclear warhead
Carry out a nuclear test close to/on the Ukraine border
Use nuclear weapons in ‘his’ territory (the illegally-annexed areas of Ukraine) to put down ‘illegal’ resistance
Is this satire?
With (literally) a nuclear option, pushing the nuclear button is a last resort.
The path there is through various escalations, without any individual step being too overt.
For example, if Putin wants to demonstrate their willingness to use nuclear weapons, he can:
Create unusual movement/activity at one of their nuclear bases, in a way that it is visible to other countries
Carry out a nuclear test inside Russia
Carry out a nuclear test in some deserted area outside of Russia
Carry out testing of the delivery mechanism (ICBM? Via airplane?) just without a nuclear warhead
Carry out a nuclear test close to/on the Ukraine border
Use nuclear weapons in ‘his’ territory (the illegally-annexed areas of Ukraine) to put down ‘illegal’ resistance