If my home is ever unsurvivably destroyed, then the sequence of events lottery win → move away → previous home destroyed is more likely to be what I experienced in a universe where the laws of physics contain MWI (due to Everett Immortality) than they are to be what I’d have experienced in a universe lacking MWI (and in which I could confidently predict that I’m not going to experience winning a lottery). Thus, a simple Bayesian analysis would mean that experiencing lottery → move → destruction should increase my estimate that MWI is true. Maybe not by much, but more than nothing.
If my home is ever unsurvivably destroyed, then the sequence of events lottery win → move away → previous home destroyed is more likely to be what I experienced in a universe where the laws of physics contain MWI (due to Everett Immortality) than they are to be what I’d have experienced in a universe lacking MWI
Let me repeat myself: Huh?
You weren’t killed in the recent tornadoes in Illinois. Is this also “evidence” for MWI?
If it is evidence for MWI, it’s exteremely weak, perhaps on the order of epsilon; because in both MWI and non-MWI versions of physics, I don’t have any particular reason to have predicted that I would travel to Illinois at all.
If my home is ever unsurvivably destroyed, then the sequence of events lottery win → move away → previous home destroyed is more likely to be what I experienced in a universe where the laws of physics contain MWI (due to Everett Immortality) than they are to be what I’d have experienced in a universe lacking MWI (and in which I could confidently predict that I’m not going to experience winning a lottery). Thus, a simple Bayesian analysis would mean that experiencing lottery → move → destruction should increase my estimate that MWI is true. Maybe not by much, but more than nothing.
Let me repeat myself: Huh?
You weren’t killed in the recent tornadoes in Illinois. Is this also “evidence” for MWI?
If it is evidence for MWI, it’s exteremely weak, perhaps on the order of epsilon; because in both MWI and non-MWI versions of physics, I don’t have any particular reason to have predicted that I would travel to Illinois at all.
You are expressing, basically, a personal anthropic principle. It is NOT evidence for MWI.
How do you know that it isn’t?