Advances in ML over the next few years as being no different than advances (over the next few years) of any other technology VS the hard leap into something that is right out of science fiction. There is a gap, and a very large one at that. What I have posted for this “prize” (and personally as a regular course of action in calling out the ability gap) is about looking for milestones of development of that sci-fi stuff, while giving less weight to flashy demo’s that don’t reflect core methods (only incremental advancement of existing methods).
*under current group think, risk from ML is going to happen faster than can be planned for, while AGI risk sneaks-up on you because you were looking in the wrong direction. At least, mitigation policies for AGI risk will target ML methods, and won’t even apply to AGI fundamentals.
Advances in ML over the next few years as being no different than advances (over the next few years) of any other technology VS the hard leap into something that is right out of science fiction. There is a gap, and a very large one at that. What I have posted for this “prize” (and personally as a regular course of action in calling out the ability gap) is about looking for milestones of development of that sci-fi stuff, while giving less weight to flashy demo’s that don’t reflect core methods (only incremental advancement of existing methods).
*under current group think, risk from ML is going to happen faster than can be planned for, while AGI risk sneaks-up on you because you were looking in the wrong direction. At least, mitigation policies for AGI risk will target ML methods, and won’t even apply to AGI fundamentals.