Little code that’s written by humans that’s 10000 lines long is bug free. Bug-freeness seems to me like to high of a standard.
When it comes to kitchen work it matters a lot for the practical problems of taking the job of existing people. On the other hand it has less relevance to whether or not the AI will speed up AI development.
Otherwise, I do agree that that the other items are good one’s to make predictions. It would be worthwhile to make metaculus questions for them.
Little code that’s written by humans that’s 10000 lines long is bug free. Bug-freeness seems to me like to high of a standard.
When it comes to kitchen work it matters a lot for the practical problems of taking the job of existing people. On the other hand it has less relevance to whether or not the AI will speed up AI development.
Otherwise, I do agree that that the other items are good one’s to make predictions. It would be worthwhile to make metaculus questions for them.