Adding details to a story makes it seem more probable to humans (it fits together making a better story), when in fact every additional detail reduces the probability. malthrin linked this earlier, you should read: http://lesswrong.com/lw/jk/burdensome_details/
I think your scenario is a conjunction of unlikely events. I think the chance Harry will use a time turner in the solution is quite low, less than 10%, because the set up is such that he won’t have access to it until more than 6 hours have passed. I’ll give only a 50% chance that Harry will frame anyone at all, and if he does frame someone, I have no reason to believe that it will be Jugson—I’d say 50% of the time he’ll frame Dumbledore (just because it’s easy), with decreasing chances for Quirell, Snape, other professors, and finally Jugson occupies such a small bit of my probability mass here that it wouldn’t even occur to me.
Just these three items (time turner, frame, Jugson) reduce your scenario’s probability to something very small; I put 2% on predictionbook, but my true probability is probably much lower.
(ETA: I realized on a re-read that my usage of “frame” above is non-standard; I was thinking broadly of turning the blame onto someone, not just of retroactively planting evidence, to which I give a much lower probability.)
I’m sure I got many things wrong, the only thing I’m feeling pretty confident about is that Harry is going to frame someone else, and Lord Jugson looks like he has been being fattened up to be framed. The rest is just the story I came up with as most likely when figuring out how Harry could do it. I could be completely wrong, I could be right about the what and wrong about the how.
Hmm. It was foreshadowed that Harry might frame Jugson if the latter pokes him. And Jugson did come up a lot in the later chapters. I think it was Jugson that cried for Azkaban first, which could be taken as poking. “Jugson did it because Hermione bested his son, and wants to ‘replace’ Malfloy (Jugson’s is an ancient family)” sounds like something one might convince Lucius of, or at least make him highly suspicious. Sending Hermione to Azkaban would be convenient in the scenario, getting rid of a possible clue. Though if it was Jugson that asked for Azkaban, it might have been at Lucius’ bidding.
You’re right, of course, all the details make it seem likely, but there are in this thread lots of details for other conflicting possibilities, and I can’t quite see how Harry might actually do it. (All theories I’ve read don’t seem to actually work IMO.)
And I interpret Eliezer’s words as if we should be able to find at least Harry’s solution, and that the latter will work at least partially.
But Harry’s not aware that Jugson was watching in chapter 78.
I think it was Jugson that cried for Azkaban first, which could be taken as poking.
Good point, he’s described as having a scar in 78 as does the man who does the shouting in 80. However, Harry wouldn’t be able to identify him (unless he looks sufficiently like his son).
But given that, I’ll now agree that if Harry identifies Jugson, he might think of attempting a frame.
Adding details to a story makes it seem more probable to humans (it fits together making a better story), when in fact every additional detail reduces the probability. malthrin linked this earlier, you should read: http://lesswrong.com/lw/jk/burdensome_details/
I think your scenario is a conjunction of unlikely events. I think the chance Harry will use a time turner in the solution is quite low, less than 10%, because the set up is such that he won’t have access to it until more than 6 hours have passed. I’ll give only a 50% chance that Harry will frame anyone at all, and if he does frame someone, I have no reason to believe that it will be Jugson—I’d say 50% of the time he’ll frame Dumbledore (just because it’s easy), with decreasing chances for Quirell, Snape, other professors, and finally Jugson occupies such a small bit of my probability mass here that it wouldn’t even occur to me.
Just these three items (time turner, frame, Jugson) reduce your scenario’s probability to something very small; I put 2% on predictionbook, but my true probability is probably much lower.
(ETA: I realized on a re-read that my usage of “frame” above is non-standard; I was thinking broadly of turning the blame onto someone, not just of retroactively planting evidence, to which I give a much lower probability.)
I’m sure I got many things wrong, the only thing I’m feeling pretty confident about is that Harry is going to frame someone else, and Lord Jugson looks like he has been being fattened up to be framed. The rest is just the story I came up with as most likely when figuring out how Harry could do it. I could be completely wrong, I could be right about the what and wrong about the how.
Hmm. It was foreshadowed that Harry might frame Jugson if the latter pokes him. And Jugson did come up a lot in the later chapters. I think it was Jugson that cried for Azkaban first, which could be taken as poking. “Jugson did it because Hermione bested his son, and wants to ‘replace’ Malfloy (Jugson’s is an ancient family)” sounds like something one might convince Lucius of, or at least make him highly suspicious. Sending Hermione to Azkaban would be convenient in the scenario, getting rid of a possible clue. Though if it was Jugson that asked for Azkaban, it might have been at Lucius’ bidding.
You’re right, of course, all the details make it seem likely, but there are in this thread lots of details for other conflicting possibilities, and I can’t quite see how Harry might actually do it. (All theories I’ve read don’t seem to actually work IMO.)
And I interpret Eliezer’s words as if we should be able to find at least Harry’s solution, and that the latter will work at least partially.
But Harry’s not aware that Jugson was watching in chapter 78.
Good point, he’s described as having a scar in 78 as does the man who does the shouting in 80. However, Harry wouldn’t be able to identify him (unless he looks sufficiently like his son).
But given that, I’ll now agree that if Harry identifies Jugson, he might think of attempting a frame.