The hypothesis he’s negating with 99% probability is pretty simple though: he will find Pringles’ story better or Eliezer will. Which is a disjunction, not a conjunction.
I already knew Pringlescan’s idea and I was sufficiently aware of Eliezer’s level of writing skill. My estimate on the probability didn’t originate primarily from the complexity of Pringlescan’s idea, but from the related fact that its complexity would make it a bad idea for Harry to have or for Eliezer to write.
The hypothesis he’s negating with 99% probability is pretty simple though: he will find Pringles’ story better or Eliezer will. Which is a disjunction, not a conjunction.
I already knew Pringlescan’s idea and I was sufficiently aware of Eliezer’s level of writing skill. My estimate on the probability didn’t originate primarily from the complexity of Pringlescan’s idea, but from the related fact that its complexity would make it a bad idea for Harry to have or for Eliezer to write.