Yvain: I am glad Stanislav Petrov, contemplating his military oath to always obey his superiors and the appropriate guidelines, never read this post.
An interesting point, for several reasons.
First, did Petrov actually swear such an oath, and would it apply in such fashion as to require him to follow the written policy rather than using his own military judgment?
Second, you might argue that Petrov’s oath wasn’t intended to cover circumstances involving the end of the world, and that a common-sense exemption should apply when the stakes suddenly get raised hugely beyond the intended context of the original oath. I think this fails, because Petrov was regularly in charge of a nuclear-war installation and so this was exactly the sort of event his oath would be expected to apply to.
Third, the Soviets arguably implemented what I called strategy 1 in this comment: Petrov did the right thing, and was censured for it anyway.
Fourth—maybe, on sober reflection, we wouldn’t have wanted the Soviets to act differently! Yes, the written policy was stupid. And the Soviet Union was undoubtedly censuring Petrov out of bureaucratic coverup, not for reasons of principle. But do you want the Soviet Union to have a written, explicit policy that says, “Anyone can ignore orders in a nuclear war scenario if they think it’s a good idea,” or even an explicit policy that says “Anyone who ignores orders in a nuclear war scenario, who is later vindicated by events, will be rewarded and promoted”?
An interesting point, for several reasons.
First, did Petrov actually swear such an oath, and would it apply in such fashion as to require him to follow the written policy rather than using his own military judgment?
Second, you might argue that Petrov’s oath wasn’t intended to cover circumstances involving the end of the world, and that a common-sense exemption should apply when the stakes suddenly get raised hugely beyond the intended context of the original oath. I think this fails, because Petrov was regularly in charge of a nuclear-war installation and so this was exactly the sort of event his oath would be expected to apply to.
Third, the Soviets arguably implemented what I called strategy 1 in this comment: Petrov did the right thing, and was censured for it anyway.
Fourth—maybe, on sober reflection, we wouldn’t have wanted the Soviets to act differently! Yes, the written policy was stupid. And the Soviet Union was undoubtedly censuring Petrov out of bureaucratic coverup, not for reasons of principle. But do you want the Soviet Union to have a written, explicit policy that says, “Anyone can ignore orders in a nuclear war scenario if they think it’s a good idea,” or even an explicit policy that says “Anyone who ignores orders in a nuclear war scenario, who is later vindicated by events, will be rewarded and promoted”?