I think you mean in January 2029 or earlier if the question resolves before the end of 2028 otherwise there would be no need to introduce the CPI into the bet to keep things fair (or predictable).
Thanks, Richard! I have updated the bet to account for that.
If, until the end of 2028, Metaculus’ question about superintelligent AI:
Resolves non-ambiguously, I transfer to you 10 k January-2025-$ in the month after that in which the question resolved.
Does not resolve, you transfer to me 10 k January-2025-$ in January 2029. As before, I plan to donate my profits to animal welfare organisations.
The nominal amount of the transfer in $ is 10 k times the ratio between the consumer price index for all urban consumers and items in the United States, as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data, in the month in which the bet resolved and January 2025.
I think you mean in January 2029 or earlier if the question resolves before the end of 2028 otherwise there would be no need to introduce the CPI into the bet to keep things fair (or predictable).
Thanks, Richard! I have updated the bet to account for that.