Yea, basically that. Every fool can make correct choice between two alternatives with a little luck and a coin toss. Every other fool can get it by looking at first fool. You gets heaps of utility by looking in giant solution spaces where this doesn’t work. You don’t get a whole lot by focussing all your intellectual might on doing something that fools do well enough.
See, Eliezer grew up in religious family, and his idea of intelligence is choosing the correct beliefs. I grew up in poor family; my idea of intelligence is much more along the lines of actually succeeding via finding solutions to practical problems. Nobody’s going to pay you just because you correctly don’t believe in God. Not falling for the sunk cost fallacy at very best gets you to square 1 with lower losses—that’s great, and laudable, and is better than sinking more costs, but it’s only microscopic piece of problem solving. The largest failure of reasoning is failure to even get a glimpse at the winning option, because its lost inside huge space.
Yea, basically that. Every fool can make correct choice between two alternatives with a little luck and a coin toss. Every other fool can get it by looking at first fool. You gets heaps of utility by looking in giant solution spaces where this doesn’t work. You don’t get a whole lot by focussing all your intellectual might on doing something that fools do well enough.
See, Eliezer grew up in religious family, and his idea of intelligence is choosing the correct beliefs. I grew up in poor family; my idea of intelligence is much more along the lines of actually succeeding via finding solutions to practical problems. Nobody’s going to pay you just because you correctly don’t believe in God. Not falling for the sunk cost fallacy at very best gets you to square 1 with lower losses—that’s great, and laudable, and is better than sinking more costs, but it’s only microscopic piece of problem solving. The largest failure of reasoning is failure to even get a glimpse at the winning option, because its lost inside huge space.