This kind of comment completely throws me off. I will have to read Eliezer’s arguments more carefully to see the meaning of these things further, but “0 and 1 are not probabilities”? What?! Under what mathematical model for Bayesianism is this true? I read “it’s more convenient to use odds when you’re doing Bayesian updates” and some discussion of the logistic transformation, some reasonable comments about finite changes under updating, and that MAYBE we should try to formulate a probability theory without 0 and 1, (resp. -inf, inf) to the title’s apparent claim: “0 and 1 are not probabilities”. Talk about a confusing non-sequitur. Same thing with the fallacy of gray. What? Eliezier rejects P(not A)=1-P(A) too?? I haven’t read that yet but whatever form of Bayesianism he ascribes too, it’s not a standard one mathematically.
EDIT: nevermind about the gray. I misread it. gray is just ignoring the difference between different probabilities., This applies to the word “agnostic” (i.e. are you a high agnostic or a low agnostic) but, then, nobody forced me to declare my probability numerically. I was just introducing where I fit in the usual spectrum. P({ of possibilities in which there is a God} | life)>1/100.
EDIT2: Thanks for the “gray” post. I liked this best: “If you say, “No one is perfect, but some people are less imperfect than others,” you may not gain applause; but for those who strive to do better, you have held out hope. No one is perfectly imperfect, after all.”
EDIT3: deleted a nonsense remark.
This kind of comment completely throws me off. I will have to read Eliezer’s arguments more carefully to see the meaning of these things further, but “0 and 1 are not probabilities”? What?! Under what mathematical model for Bayesianism is this true? I read “it’s more convenient to use odds when you’re doing Bayesian updates” and some discussion of the logistic transformation, some reasonable comments about finite changes under updating, and that MAYBE we should try to formulate a probability theory without 0 and 1, (resp. -inf, inf) to the title’s apparent claim: “0 and 1 are not probabilities”. Talk about a confusing non-sequitur. Same thing with the fallacy of gray. What? Eliezier rejects P(not A)=1-P(A) too?? I haven’t read that yet but whatever form of Bayesianism he ascribes too, it’s not a standard one mathematically.
EDIT: nevermind about the gray. I misread it. gray is just ignoring the difference between different probabilities., This applies to the word “agnostic” (i.e. are you a high agnostic or a low agnostic) but, then, nobody forced me to declare my probability numerically. I was just introducing where I fit in the usual spectrum. P({ of possibilities in which there is a God} | life)>1/100. EDIT2: Thanks for the “gray” post. I liked this best: “If you say, “No one is perfect, but some people are less imperfect than others,” you may not gain applause; but for those who strive to do better, you have held out hope. No one is perfectly imperfect, after all.” EDIT3: deleted a nonsense remark.