Link post
1 Abstract/Distant Future Bias
2 Abstractly Ideal, Concretely Selfish
3 We Add Near, Average Far
4 Why We Don’t Know What We Want
5 We See the Sacred from Afar, to See It Together
6 The Future Seems Shiny
7 Doubting My Far Mind
8 Beware the Inside View
9 Are Meta Views Outside Views?
10 Disagreement Is Near-Far Bias
11 Others’ Views Are Detail
12 Why Be Contrarian?
13 On Disagreement, Again
14 Rationality Requires Common Priors
15 Might Disagreement Fade Like Violence?
16 Reject Random Beliefs
17 Chase Your Reading
18 Against Free Thinkers
19 Eventual Futures
20 Seen vs. Unseen Biases
21 Law as No-Bias Theatre
22 Benefit of Doubt = Bias
23 Decision Theory Remains Neglected
24 What Function Music?
25 Politics isn’t about Policy
26 Views Aren’t About Sights
27 Why Do Bets Look Bad?
28 Homo Hypocritus
29 Resolving Your Hypocrisy
30 Errors, Lies, and Self-Deception
31 Enforce Common Norms On Elites
32 Identity Norms
33 Exclusion As A Substitute For Norms, Law, & Governance
34 How Idealists Aid Cheaters
35 Beware Mob War Strategy
36 Automatic Norms
37 10 Implications of Automatic Norms
38 Automatic Norm Lessons
39 Automatic Norms in Academia
40 Plot Holes & Blame Holes
41 Fairy Tales Were Cynical
42 Why Fiction Lies
43 Biases Of Fiction
44 Why We Fight Over Fiction
45 Stories Are Like Religion
46 More Stories As Religion
47 This is the Dream Time
48 DreamTime
49 Dreamtime Social Games
50 We Moderns Are Status-Drunk
51 Earth: A Status Report
52 On Teen Angst
53 Prediction Markets “Fail” To Moloch
54 Seeking Robust Credible Expertise Buyers
55 Prediction Markets Need Trial and Error
56 New-Hire Prediction Markets
57 Shoulda-Listened Futures
58 Brand Truth Narrowly
59 Fixing Academia Via Prediction Markets
60 Intellectual Prestige Futures
61 Academic Stats Prediction Markets
62 How To Fund Prestige Science
63 Medical Doubts OpEd
64 Medical Market Failures
65 Paternalism Is About Status
66 Rulesy Folks Push Paternalism
67 Universal Basic Dorms
68 Elites Must Rule
69 Status App Concept
70 Our Prestige Obsession
71 Yay Stability Rents
72 Conditional Harberger Tax Games
73 Reliable Private-Enough Physical Identity
74 Freedom Isn’t Free
75 Quality Regs Say ‘High Is Good’
76 Socialism: A Gift You’d Exchange?
77 Vouch For Pandemic Passports
78 Can We Tame Political Minds?
79 Consider Reparations
80 Regulating Infinity
81 Privately Enforced & Punished Crime
82 Fine Grain Futarchy Zoning Via Harberger Taxes
83 Fear Made Farmers
84 Forage vs Farm Future
85 Two Types of People
86 Forager v Farmer, Elaborated
87 Rome As Semi-Foragers
88 Self-Control Is Slavery
89 School Is To Submit
90 Why Grievances Grow
91 The World Forager Elite
92 The Great Cycle Rule
93 The Labor-From-Factories Explosion
94 Lost Advanced Civilizations
95 Try-Try or Try-Once Great Filter?
96 Great Filter with Set-Backs, Dead-Ends
97 Seeing ANYTHING Other Than Huge-Civ Is Bad News
98 Our Level in the Great Filter
99 At Least Two Filters
100 Fertility: The Big Problem
101 Humans Are Early
102 An Alien War Nightmare
103 Non-Grabby Legacies
104 Why We Can’t See Grabby Aliens
105 Beware General Visible Near Prey
106 If The Future Is Big
107 UFOs – What The Hell?
108 On UFOs-As-Aliens Priors
109 My Awkward Inference
110 UFO Stylized Social Facts
111 Explaining Stylized UFO Facts
112 Why Age of Em Will Happen
113 How To Not Die (Soon)
114 How Does Brain Code Differ?
115 Progeny Probabilities: Souls, Ems, Quantum
116 Em Redistribution
117 A.I. Old-Timers
118 How Lumpy AI Services?
119 A History Of Foom
120 I Still Don’t Get Foom
121 Foom Justifies AI Risk Efforts Now
122 Is The City-ularity Near?
123 The Betterness Explosion
124 An Outside View of AI Control
125 AI Risk, Again
Overcoming Bias Anthology
Link post
Part 1: Our Thinking
Near and Far
1 Abstract/Distant Future Bias
2 Abstractly Ideal, Concretely Selfish
3 We Add Near, Average Far
4 Why We Don’t Know What We Want
5 We See the Sacred from Afar, to See It Together
6 The Future Seems Shiny
7 Doubting My Far Mind
Disagreement
8 Beware the Inside View
9 Are Meta Views Outside Views?
10 Disagreement Is Near-Far Bias
11 Others’ Views Are Detail
12 Why Be Contrarian?
13 On Disagreement, Again
14 Rationality Requires Common Priors
15 Might Disagreement Fade Like Violence?
Biases
16 Reject Random Beliefs
17 Chase Your Reading
18 Against Free Thinkers
19 Eventual Futures
20 Seen vs. Unseen Biases
21 Law as No-Bias Theatre
22 Benefit of Doubt = Bias
Part 2: Our Motives
Signaling
23 Decision Theory Remains Neglected
24 What Function Music?
25 Politics isn’t about Policy
26 Views Aren’t About Sights
27 Why Do Bets Look Bad?
28 Homo Hypocritus
29 Resolving Your Hypocrisy
30 Errors, Lies, and Self-Deception
Norms
31 Enforce Common Norms On Elites
32 Identity Norms
33 Exclusion As A Substitute For Norms, Law, & Governance
34 How Idealists Aid Cheaters
35 Beware Mob War Strategy
36 Automatic Norms
37 10 Implications of Automatic Norms
38 Automatic Norm Lessons
39 Automatic Norms in Academia
Fiction
40 Plot Holes & Blame Holes
41 Fairy Tales Were Cynical
42 Why Fiction Lies
43 Biases Of Fiction
44 Why We Fight Over Fiction
45 Stories Are Like Religion
46 More Stories As Religion
The Dreamtime
47 This is the Dream Time
48 DreamTime
49 Dreamtime Social Games
50 We Moderns Are Status-Drunk
51 Earth: A Status Report
52 On Teen Angst
Part 3: Our Institutions
Prediction Markets
53 Prediction Markets “Fail” To Moloch
54 Seeking Robust Credible Expertise Buyers
55 Prediction Markets Need Trial and Error
56 New-Hire Prediction Markets
57 Shoulda-Listened Futures
58 Brand Truth Narrowly
Academia
59 Fixing Academia Via Prediction Markets
60 Intellectual Prestige Futures
61 Academic Stats Prediction Markets
62 How To Fund Prestige Science
Medicine
63 Medical Doubts OpEd
64 Medical Market Failures
Paternalism
65 Paternalism Is About Status
66 Rulesy Folks Push Paternalism
67 Universal Basic Dorms
Law
68 Elites Must Rule
69 Status App Concept
70 Our Prestige Obsession
71 Yay Stability Rents
72 Conditional Harberger Tax Games
73 Reliable Private-Enough Physical Identity
74 Freedom Isn’t Free
75 Quality Regs Say ‘High Is Good’
76 Socialism: A Gift You’d Exchange?
77 Vouch For Pandemic Passports
78 Can We Tame Political Minds?
79 Consider Reparations
80 Regulating Infinity
81 Privately Enforced & Punished Crime
82 Fine Grain Futarchy Zoning Via Harberger Taxes
Part 4: Our Past
Farmers and Foragers
83 Fear Made Farmers
84 Forage vs Farm Future
85 Two Types of People
86 Forager v Farmer, Elaborated
87 Rome As Semi-Foragers
88 Self-Control Is Slavery
89 School Is To Submit
90 Why Grievances Grow
91 The World Forager Elite
History as Exponential Modes
92 The Great Cycle Rule
93 The Labor-From-Factories Explosion
94 Lost Advanced Civilizations
The Great Filter
95 Try-Try or Try-Once Great Filter?
96 Great Filter with Set-Backs, Dead-Ends
97 Seeing ANYTHING Other Than Huge-Civ Is Bad News
98 Our Level in the Great Filter
99 At Least Two Filters
100 Fertility: The Big Problem
Part 5: Our Future
Aliens
101 Humans Are Early
102 An Alien War Nightmare
103 Non-Grabby Legacies
104 Why We Can’t See Grabby Aliens
105 Beware General Visible Near Prey
106 If The Future Is Big
UFOs
107 UFOs – What The Hell?
108 On UFOs-As-Aliens Priors
109 My Awkward Inference
110 UFO Stylized Social Facts
111 Explaining Stylized UFO Facts
The Age of Em
112 Why Age of Em Will Happen
113 How To Not Die (Soon)
114 How Does Brain Code Differ?
115 Progeny Probabilities: Souls, Ems, Quantum
116 Em Redistribution
Artificial Intelligence
117 A.I. Old-Timers
118 How Lumpy AI Services?
119 A History Of Foom
120 I Still Don’t Get Foom
121 Foom Justifies AI Risk Efforts Now
122 Is The City-ularity Near?
123 The Betterness Explosion
124 An Outside View of AI Control
125 AI Risk, Again