Which is a very tenuous basis on which to put yourself in a separate reference class.
You should adjust your confidence according to the strength of others’ arguments relative to what you would expect given your prior confidence value, and you should also adjust your confidence according to the fact of others’ belief weighted according to your confidence in their mechanisms for establishing truth.
If I believe proposition A, and someone gives me argument X for disbelieving it, and I find argument X weak, I should adjust my confidence little if at all. But if a large population of people whose judgment I have no reason to believe is less sound than my own for cases in this class tells me that proposition A is wrong on the basis of argument X, and I’m just not getting it, I should significantly decrease my confidence, on the likelihood that I really am just not getting it.
Which is a very tenuous basis on which to put yourself in a separate reference class.
Well let me ask you this: roughly speaking how much weight do you give to the unsupported assertion of an anonymous person on the internet versus your own conclusions of which you are reasonably confident in an area where you are reasonably confident of your skill and experience?
Depends on where the anonymous internet people are selected from. From Youtube comments? Very little. From here? Quite a lot more.
If I knew that it were something that the people here had put a lot of thought into, and that nearly everybody here thought that I was completely wrong, I would need tremendous prior certainty not to be reduced below .5.
If I knew that it were something that the people here had put a lot of thought into, and that nearly everybody here thought that I was completely wrong, I would need tremendous prior certainty not to be reduced below .5.
Even if the dispute were in an area where you believed you had unusual expertise?
If the other members were aware of my assessment of my expertise and reasons for assigning it, and were not moved from high confidence that I was wrong, then yes. I would need very strong confidence in my having unique qualifications to not mostly discount on the basis of their discounting.
If the other members were aware of my assessment of my expertise and reasons for assigning it, and were not moved from high confidence that I was wrong, then yes.
Quoted so it won’t get missed. This is a really important point.
Which is a very tenuous basis on which to put yourself in a separate reference class.
You should adjust your confidence according to the strength of others’ arguments relative to what you would expect given your prior confidence value, and you should also adjust your confidence according to the fact of others’ belief weighted according to your confidence in their mechanisms for establishing truth.
If I believe proposition A, and someone gives me argument X for disbelieving it, and I find argument X weak, I should adjust my confidence little if at all. But if a large population of people whose judgment I have no reason to believe is less sound than my own for cases in this class tells me that proposition A is wrong on the basis of argument X, and I’m just not getting it, I should significantly decrease my confidence, on the likelihood that I really am just not getting it.
Well let me ask you this: roughly speaking how much weight do you give to the unsupported assertion of an anonymous person on the internet versus your own conclusions of which you are reasonably confident in an area where you are reasonably confident of your skill and experience?
Depends on where the anonymous internet people are selected from. From Youtube comments? Very little. From here? Quite a lot more.
If I knew that it were something that the people here had put a lot of thought into, and that nearly everybody here thought that I was completely wrong, I would need tremendous prior certainty not to be reduced below .5.
Even if the dispute were in an area where you believed you had unusual expertise?
If the other members were aware of my assessment of my expertise and reasons for assigning it, and were not moved from high confidence that I was wrong, then yes. I would need very strong confidence in my having unique qualifications to not mostly discount on the basis of their discounting.
Quoted so it won’t get missed. This is a really important point.
I think the difference is that you have a lot of respect for posters here as a group. I do not.