This is interesting. But I can see someone seeing it as rude to speculate on the chance that someone else is going to change their mind. In some contexts this could come across as condescending and can easily make worse feelings that a discussion involves others who are opponents rather than people mutually trying to get a better understanding of reality.
With that disclaimer out of the way: I’m estimate an 8% chance that Brazil will reduce his estimate below 50% in the next year and publicly say so on Less Wrong.
This is interesting. But I can see someone seeing it as rude to speculate on the chance that someone else is going to change their mind. In some contexts this could come across as condescending and can easily make worse feelings that a discussion involves others who are opponents rather than people mutually trying to get a better understanding of reality.
With that disclaimer out of the way: I’m estimate an 8% chance that Brazil will reduce his estimate below 50% in the next year and publicly say so on Less Wrong.
Mine is 2%.
Hmm, from the look of things, it might be time to update the model...
Whoa! Indeed :-(
Edit: In fact not my prediction stands.