He already stated that given that he accepts the argument, he would update to 30% confidence, which conveniently frees us from the need to consider the probability outside the argument.
It’s possible that he really meant “given that I accept the argument at low confidence, as opposed to not at all, as I currently do,” but that would make his statement awfully misleading, and brazil84 has demonstrated too little familiarity with Bayesian reasoning for me to read his statements with that much charity.
He should mean “given that I assign the argument a comparable credence to other things I would state that I accept”—which shouldn’t be 1. I think this probably shouldn’t be a big enough difference to matter (I missed the “given...” in the context, in my response), but it would be interesting to update the numbers to verify.
He already stated that given that he accepts the argument, he would update to 30% confidence, which conveniently frees us from the need to consider the probability outside the argument.
It’s possible that he really meant “given that I accept the argument at low confidence, as opposed to not at all, as I currently do,” but that would make his statement awfully misleading, and brazil84 has demonstrated too little familiarity with Bayesian reasoning for me to read his statements with that much charity.
He should mean “given that I assign the argument a comparable credence to other things I would state that I accept”—which shouldn’t be 1. I think this probably shouldn’t be a big enough difference to matter (I missed the “given...” in the context, in my response), but it would be interesting to update the numbers to verify.