I would think that hypothetical juror judgments of guilt or innocence may be a lot more prone to bias than a more “dispassionate” look at the evidence generating a probabilty estimate. Even if one should count one’s own hypothetical guilt/innocence judgment as a small bit of evidence in the right direction, explicitly trying to calibrate this judgment with one’s prior probability estimate is going to make one over-correct one’s estimate.
I would think that hypothetical juror judgments of guilt or innocence may be a lot more prone to bias than a more “dispassionate” look at the evidence generating a probabilty estimate. Even if one should count one’s own hypothetical guilt/innocence judgment as a small bit of evidence in the right direction, explicitly trying to calibrate this judgment with one’s prior probability estimate is going to make one over-correct one’s estimate.