In truth, because (even before the verdict) I had followed the case more than most LW readers, my level of confidence should have been higher than most readers’.
True while we’re uncertain of your rationality. But at this point I find you reliable enough to think that your confidence is what mine would be if I followed the case as closely as you. And that means I’m just going to adopt your probability estimate.
Well, of course, at the time in question no one knew what my probability estimate was; I merely meant that they need not have reached 0.999 confidence from a few minutes of browsing.
True while we’re uncertain of your rationality. But at this point I find you reliable enough to think that your confidence is what mine would be if I followed the case as closely as you. And that means I’m just going to adopt your probability estimate.
Well, of course, at the time in question no one knew what my probability estimate was; I merely meant that they need not have reached 0.999 confidence from a few minutes of browsing.
(Thanks for the compliment, in any case!)