So I’m a few months late to the game here, but I was one of the people selected to give my retrospective on this, so here goes:
My original estimates were .01, .01 and .99. I realize now that my calibration was off in the same way Komponisto has conceded his was: those numbers are way too strong to be rational estimates for something you read about on the internet for an hour or two. If I had it to do over again with benefit of hindsight, I’d probably say something more like .1 .1 .9.
The thing is though, in the time since then I’ve done quite a bit more reading on the topic, to the point where I now feel much more justifiably confident in my conclusions… so if I had to choose probabilities TODAY, I’d probably pick something pretty similar to my original .01 .01 .99.… ORIGINALLY those numbers were too strong to be justified based on the state of my knowledge at the time, but that’s no longer the case.
So basically in the last two years I’ve come full circle back to my original estimates.
Of the 3 new pieces of evidence you mentioned, #1 is the only one that you might say I updated on. I didn’t see any reason to update on the expert report, since I assume it just contains all the same evidence that I’d already updated on.
So I’m a few months late to the game here, but I was one of the people selected to give my retrospective on this, so here goes:
My original estimates were .01, .01 and .99. I realize now that my calibration was off in the same way Komponisto has conceded his was: those numbers are way too strong to be rational estimates for something you read about on the internet for an hour or two. If I had it to do over again with benefit of hindsight, I’d probably say something more like .1 .1 .9.
The thing is though, in the time since then I’ve done quite a bit more reading on the topic, to the point where I now feel much more justifiably confident in my conclusions… so if I had to choose probabilities TODAY, I’d probably pick something pretty similar to my original .01 .01 .99.… ORIGINALLY those numbers were too strong to be justified based on the state of my knowledge at the time, but that’s no longer the case.
So basically in the last two years I’ve come full circle back to my original estimates.
Of the 3 new pieces of evidence you mentioned, #1 is the only one that you might say I updated on. I didn’t see any reason to update on the expert report, since I assume it just contains all the same evidence that I’d already updated on.