Assuming that we don’t discount future (or not currently existent) people, surely ripple effects far outweigh the lives directly saved. But many other actions have ripple effects too. Can anyone “prove” that the ripple effects of donating to the cause of saving lives in developing countries is more positive than, for example, improving US education? If not, why target current donations to charities that are able to prove that they are effective at directly saving lives? This would be equivalent to education charities proving that they are effective at raising students’ grades, which I think you’d agree would not by itself warrant donating to those charities.
What I want my main point to be, upon further reflection, is that If we find ourselves in a situation where we don’t know enough to know what’s the most effective, the proper reaction is not to pursue impact, but instead find ways to reduce our uncertainty.
So if we don’t know about which has more ripple effects, we should invest in finding out, not pick at random.
So if we don’t know about which has more ripple effects, we should invest in finding out, not pick at random.
I would agree that currently, we should invest in finding out, not pick at random, but we’re likely to never achieve an understanding of ripple effects on par with our understanding of how well malaria nets or deworming efforts work, so if that’s the bar you’re setting (which you seem to be doing based on the post), then we’ll never actually pick any object-level cause to support.
on par with our understanding of how well malaria nets or deworming efforts work, so if that’s the bar you’re setting (which you seem to be doing based on the post)
That’s not what I’m saying. I actually intended my essay to argue/clarify against that.
Assuming that we don’t discount future (or not currently existent) people, surely ripple effects far outweigh the lives directly saved. But many other actions have ripple effects too. Can anyone “prove” that the ripple effects of donating to the cause of saving lives in developing countries is more positive than, for example, improving US education? If not, why target current donations to charities that are able to prove that they are effective at directly saving lives? This would be equivalent to education charities proving that they are effective at raising students’ grades, which I think you’d agree would not by itself warrant donating to those charities.
What I want my main point to be, upon further reflection, is that If we find ourselves in a situation where we don’t know enough to know what’s the most effective, the proper reaction is not to pursue impact, but instead find ways to reduce our uncertainty.
So if we don’t know about which has more ripple effects, we should invest in finding out, not pick at random.
I would agree that currently, we should invest in finding out, not pick at random, but we’re likely to never achieve an understanding of ripple effects on par with our understanding of how well malaria nets or deworming efforts work, so if that’s the bar you’re setting (which you seem to be doing based on the post), then we’ll never actually pick any object-level cause to support.
That’s not what I’m saying. I actually intended my essay to argue/clarify against that.