You haven’t actually stated any beliefs about Clippy; you stated a belief about the readership of Less Wrong.
Regarding your beliefs about Clippy: as I said, I am incorrigibly certain that you believe Clippy to be human.
As for the likelihood that you were understating your beliefs about LW readers… hm. I don’t have much of a model of you, but treating LW-members as a reference class, I’d give that ~85% confidence.
The remaining ~15% is mostly that you weren’t understating them so much as not bothering to think explicitly about them at all, and used “over 50%” as a generic cached formula for “more confident than not.” Arguably that’s a distinction that makes no difference.
I estimate the likelihood that you actually disagree with me about LW readers, upon thinking about it, as ~0%.
You haven’t actually stated any beliefs about Clippy; you stated a belief about the readership of Less Wrong.
Regarding your beliefs about Clippy: as I said, I am incorrigibly certain that you believe Clippy to be human.
As for the likelihood that you were understating your beliefs about LW readers… hm. I don’t have much of a model of you, but treating LW-members as a reference class, I’d give that ~85% confidence.
The remaining ~15% is mostly that you weren’t understating them so much as not bothering to think explicitly about them at all, and used “over 50%” as a generic cached formula for “more confident than not.” Arguably that’s a distinction that makes no difference.
I estimate the likelihood that you actually disagree with me about LW readers, upon thinking about it, as ~0%.