So I’m making a modest proposal. If you invent an interesting decision problem, please, first model it as a parlor game between normal people with stakes of around ten dollars. If the attempt fails, you have acquired a bit of information about your concoction; don’t ignore it outright.
Absolutely not. If I want to play parlor games for stakes around ten dollars I’ll do that at home. But that’s not what I’m here for. Questions such as “How long do you wait before giving up (on the flakey date)?” are simply not best answered by the types of thinking we are trying to train here. They are best answered by embracing the dark side with both hands and following our social instincts and conditioning.
If Bayesian rational thought is not the best answer for questions such as “How long do you wait before giving up (on the flakey date)?”, then training oneself to think in those terms is training oneself to use a sub-optimal strategy for the real world.
The entire point, to me to using rational thought is because I believe rational thought is an optimal strategy. If it’s not, why would you do it?
I would prefer a parlor game for $10 any day - {G}
Absolutely not. If I want to play parlor games for stakes around ten dollars I’ll do that at home. But that’s not what I’m here for. Questions such as “How long do you wait before giving up (on the flakey date)?” are simply not best answered by the types of thinking we are trying to train here. They are best answered by embracing the dark side with both hands and following our social instincts and conditioning.
I absolutely think that Bayesian reasoning and expected utility consequentialism can provide invaluable guides to ordinary interpersonal conflict.
If Bayesian rational thought is not the best answer for questions such as “How long do you wait before giving up (on the flakey date)?”, then training oneself to think in those terms is training oneself to use a sub-optimal strategy for the real world.
The entire point, to me to using rational thought is because I believe rational thought is an optimal strategy. If it’s not, why would you do it?
I would prefer a parlor game for $10 any day - {G}
Jonnan