it is not clear if they really think it, or merely say so, but the effort they seem to be putting into it suggests they do have some confidence; and while they may be wrong, they are the ones who would know best, as they’re directly working with the things.
So the question is not really “do you think it is absolutely guaranteed that AGI will be created within the next 10 years?”, but rather “do you think it is absolutely impossible that it will?”. Any small amount of probability is at least worth giving it a thought! I get that lots of people are somewhat skeptical of their claims, makes sense, but you have to at least consider the possibility that they’re right.
One thing that I think is also worth stressing:
the companies are trying to do it
they think they are close to succeeding
it is not clear if they really think it, or merely say so, but the effort they seem to be putting into it suggests they do have some confidence; and while they may be wrong, they are the ones who would know best, as they’re directly working with the things.
So the question is not really “do you think it is absolutely guaranteed that AGI will be created within the next 10 years?”, but rather “do you think it is absolutely impossible that it will?”. Any small amount of probability is at least worth giving it a thought! I get that lots of people are somewhat skeptical of their claims, makes sense, but you have to at least consider the possibility that they’re right.