It does follow from repeatability—Warren Buffet and Goldman Sachs are not explained by the lottery analogy.
It doesn’t follow from repeatability. Or rather it doesn’t follow from the existence of examples of repeated success. A normal distribution of returns with repeated play will still lead us to expect at least one investor with Buffet’s track record (if my econ. prof’s math is to believed----I haven’t have cause to look closely).
It would follow from “significantly more repeated success than a normal distribution would predict”.
I do believe that Buffet’s success is more than luck, just not that this particular argument follows.
A normal distribution of returns with repeated play will still lead us to expect at least one investor with Buffet’s track record (if my econ. prof’s math is to believed----I haven’t have cause to look closely).
Buffett claimed at some point that they calculated he was a 3 sigma event, then a 4 sigma, then a 5 sigma, then stopped calculating because it was getting embarrassing.
It doesn’t follow from repeatability. Or rather it doesn’t follow from the existence of examples of repeated success. A normal distribution of returns with repeated play will still lead us to expect at least one investor with Buffet’s track record (if my econ. prof’s math is to believed----I haven’t have cause to look closely).
It would follow from “significantly more repeated success than a normal distribution would predict”.
I do believe that Buffet’s success is more than luck, just not that this particular argument follows.
Buffett claimed at some point that they calculated he was a 3 sigma event, then a 4 sigma, then a 5 sigma, then stopped calculating because it was getting embarrassing.
Here is his contemporary, fuller argument.
Buffet’s track record is well beyond what chance would allow.