The interesting bit is the one where the market failed to work: we now know the Mt Gox price was hideously corrupted (and the tape-painting was long visible right there in the blockchain), but the other exchanges closely tracked the bogus Mt Gox price.
So look for an inefficient market as an opportunity.
I find it more surprising that the bogus price on Mt Gox was not fully tracked by other exchanges. I thought about trying to arbitrage that for a little while, before deciding that was a context where I basically trusted the EMH and took it as a signal to move out of Mt Gox.
The interesting bit is the one where the market failed to work: we now know the Mt Gox price was hideously corrupted (and the tape-painting was long visible right there in the blockchain), but the other exchanges closely tracked the bogus Mt Gox price.
So look for an inefficient market as an opportunity.
I find it more surprising that the bogus price on Mt Gox was not fully tracked by other exchanges. I thought about trying to arbitrage that for a little while, before deciding that was a context where I basically trusted the EMH and took it as a signal to move out of Mt Gox.
Yeah, there was a certain spread for the difficulty already present at the time in getting one’s money back out of Mt Gox.
Bogus mtgox price? It was Chinese exchanges that were driving that runup, and mtgox following.