Nobody makes money off gold in a gold rush. Those who make money from the strike already found their gold before it was a gold rush.
Are you talking about literal gold rush, or tech gold rush? With domain names, I registered my domains at almost the exact peak of the dot com bubble, when surely the domain name rush was well underway. With Bitcoin, I started only after it was so well known that it was being discussed on a barely related site, Less Wrong.
I was talking about literal gold rushes. I find them quite fascinating and have read a few books on their history. Once the actual “gold rush” starts, very few miners coming from afar get rich. Those who do typically either (a) are supplying the miners, (b) innovate in some way, e.g. buying small stakes in many claims and reselling shares to speculators.
The people who make the most money are parasites and could have done that anywhere. The yields are just bigger in the gold rush ecosystem. The ones who actually struck it rich were the grizzled prospector types who happened to be in the right place at the right time.. but not because they were lucky. You make your own luck as the saying goes.
This brings to mind Ed Schieffelin, who struck silver in Arizona and correctly predicted there would be gold in Alaska (but didn’t find enough to overcome the bitter cold, and so left).
Nobody makes money off gold in a gold rush. Those who make money from the strike already found their gold before it was a gold rush.
If you want to predict a gold rush, use the weak inside view to predict where opportunities will be, and move on those where no one else is.
Are you talking about literal gold rush, or tech gold rush? With domain names, I registered my domains at almost the exact peak of the dot com bubble, when surely the domain name rush was well underway. With Bitcoin, I started only after it was so well known that it was being discussed on a barely related site, Less Wrong.
I was talking about literal gold rushes. I find them quite fascinating and have read a few books on their history. Once the actual “gold rush” starts, very few miners coming from afar get rich. Those who do typically either (a) are supplying the miners, (b) innovate in some way, e.g. buying small stakes in many claims and reselling shares to speculators.
The people who make the most money are parasites and could have done that anywhere. The yields are just bigger in the gold rush ecosystem. The ones who actually struck it rich were the grizzled prospector types who happened to be in the right place at the right time.. but not because they were lucky. You make your own luck as the saying goes.
This brings to mind Ed Schieffelin, who struck silver in Arizona and correctly predicted there would be gold in Alaska (but didn’t find enough to overcome the bitter cold, and so left).
To be fair, if your name were Jebediah Thorgunnsen, your domain name would not have appreciated so much.
The general principle is: In a gold rush, the money is in shovels. So look for services you can provide to a gold rush.
That’s missing the point. He’s asking how you predict the gold rush in the first place.
True :-) OTOH, if anyone could answer that question reliably they’d be rich.