I share your fear that violent political unrest will spread (it’s currently non-zero, but not widespread) after a disputed election. I’m not sure what your probability estimate is—I give it about a percent and a half, which is orders of magnitude higher than previous elections.
Most of that probability is for a short-lived protest or conflict, which destroys a bunch of property, kills and hospitalizes a small percentage (but significant absolute numbers), and then tapers off after a few weeks. Significant secession-level conflict is unlikely enough that I’m not trying to prepare for it; I’d try much harder to be elsewhere if I thought that was going to happen. The timing is uncertain as well—we’ll know the theoretical outcome in November, but there may be months of posturing and brinksmanship before we find out in January if the nominal outcome is honored. During this, violence may or may not be present, to varying degrees.
As such, my current strategy is normal emergency preparedness − 30 days of food, medicine, water, etc. Keeping some amount of non-US currency and silver or gold coins is wise as well, IMO. I keep firearms, but wouldn’t advise anyone take that up solely for this situation—it’s hard to train and practice safely during COVID, so now isn’t the time to start.
As to leaving, I’m not sure there are very many good options. I’m near enough the Canadian border to drive or boat across, but it’s closed for COVID, and that will be even more severely enforced if there are literal refugees streaming across. It’s unlikely that anyone’s going to give you asylum status, no matter how bad it gets. My current belief is that before illegal entry into another country becomes attractive, I should switch strategies from flight to fight—become an active participant and risk myself (yes, and my family) in order to slightly shift the likelihood of outcome toward my preferences. Huh, I guess I’m a patriot after all (once all the better options are eliminated).
I share your fear that violent political unrest will spread (it’s currently non-zero, but not widespread) after a disputed election. I’m not sure what your probability estimate is—I give it about a percent and a half, which is orders of magnitude higher than previous elections.
Most of that probability is for a short-lived protest or conflict, which destroys a bunch of property, kills and hospitalizes a small percentage (but significant absolute numbers), and then tapers off after a few weeks. Significant secession-level conflict is unlikely enough that I’m not trying to prepare for it; I’d try much harder to be elsewhere if I thought that was going to happen. The timing is uncertain as well—we’ll know the theoretical outcome in November, but there may be months of posturing and brinksmanship before we find out in January if the nominal outcome is honored. During this, violence may or may not be present, to varying degrees.
As such, my current strategy is normal emergency preparedness − 30 days of food, medicine, water, etc. Keeping some amount of non-US currency and silver or gold coins is wise as well, IMO. I keep firearms, but wouldn’t advise anyone take that up solely for this situation—it’s hard to train and practice safely during COVID, so now isn’t the time to start.
As to leaving, I’m not sure there are very many good options. I’m near enough the Canadian border to drive or boat across, but it’s closed for COVID, and that will be even more severely enforced if there are literal refugees streaming across. It’s unlikely that anyone’s going to give you asylum status, no matter how bad it gets. My current belief is that before illegal entry into another country becomes attractive, I should switch strategies from flight to fight—become an active participant and risk myself (yes, and my family) in order to slightly shift the likelihood of outcome toward my preferences. Huh, I guess I’m a patriot after all (once all the better options are eliminated).