One could argue that at least some of the growth is not a measurement of increased human satisfaction, but just of Goodheart mismeasurement and nefarious schemes of the wealthy to increase their power at the expense of the common man.
GDP is a classic example of a measure that has changed meaning over time. Take the simple example of neighbors who each mow their lawns every week. It’s unmeasured, but valuable enough for them to do it. Then one neighbor starts to do both lawns, and the other reciprocates with taking care of all the kids during the day. Also great value, good specialization, improved welfare. But if they decide to PAY each other for the services, nothing changes about the work performed or value received, but now GDP is up by twice the value exchanged (each pays the other $x, for $2x gdp measurement).
To some degree every available happiness metric is a goodhart, but people in places like Bangalore seem justifiably keen on moving to the high GDP countries. I think the thing that makes GDP per capita PPP or the highly correlated “median income” reliable as proxies for national well being, is that (non-Chinese) governments tend to be really unaggressive at “optimizing” them.
One could argue that at least some of the growth is not a measurement of increased human satisfaction, but just of Goodheart mismeasurement and nefarious schemes of the wealthy to increase their power at the expense of the common man.
GDP is a classic example of a measure that has changed meaning over time. Take the simple example of neighbors who each mow their lawns every week. It’s unmeasured, but valuable enough for them to do it. Then one neighbor starts to do both lawns, and the other reciprocates with taking care of all the kids during the day. Also great value, good specialization, improved welfare. But if they decide to PAY each other for the services, nothing changes about the work performed or value received, but now GDP is up by twice the value exchanged (each pays the other $x, for $2x gdp measurement).
To some degree every available happiness metric is a goodhart, but people in places like Bangalore seem justifiably keen on moving to the high GDP countries. I think the thing that makes GDP per capita PPP or the highly correlated “median income” reliable as proxies for national well being, is that (non-Chinese) governments tend to be really unaggressive at “optimizing” them.