There may be a confusion about what “too pessimistic” means. Sometimes it means “you’re incorrectly predicting worse average/median outcomes than is true”, but FAR more often it means “the accuracy of the prediction is irrelevant; you’ll be happier (and the advice-giver will be happier with you) if you focus more on positive than on negative possibilities”.
For a whole lot of things, especially around social interactions and semi-legible cooperation, one gets better outcomes by expressing more confidence than is justified. Some of us can compartmentalize well, so we can have private estimates and preparations for a wider range of possibilities than we show publicly. Some of us have trouble with that, and are probably well-served with a touch of self-deception toward the positive side of the distribution.
Sometimes it means “you’re incorrectly predicting worse average/median outcomes than is true”
That is the sense it is being used in though. What is it about my post that caused you to assume otherwise? And, how can I determine if my predictions are biased to be worse than the truth, and by what degree?
Didn’t mean to assume, just to state that “being told a number of times” often indicates that your interpretation is different than what’s intended. If that’s not relevant, I apologize.
There may be a confusion about what “too pessimistic” means. Sometimes it means “you’re incorrectly predicting worse average/median outcomes than is true”, but FAR more often it means “the accuracy of the prediction is irrelevant; you’ll be happier (and the advice-giver will be happier with you) if you focus more on positive than on negative possibilities”.
For a whole lot of things, especially around social interactions and semi-legible cooperation, one gets better outcomes by expressing more confidence than is justified. Some of us can compartmentalize well, so we can have private estimates and preparations for a wider range of possibilities than we show publicly. Some of us have trouble with that, and are probably well-served with a touch of self-deception toward the positive side of the distribution.
That is the sense it is being used in though. What is it about my post that caused you to assume otherwise? And, how can I determine if my predictions are biased to be worse than the truth, and by what degree?
Didn’t mean to assume, just to state that “being told a number of times” often indicates that your interpretation is different than what’s intended. If that’s not relevant, I apologize.